New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – CHICAGO (-4) over New Orleans

The Saints two best offensive players have stepped up in a big way since the Drew Brees injury. Michael Thomas is averaging 2.94 yards per route run in Teddy Bridgewater’s starts and Alvin Kamara is gaining 1.99 yards per route run to go along with his league-high 0.34 avoided tackles per rush. However, Kamara has been downgraded to out for this game, which is worth nearly a point. Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL and the pair should limit Bears’ elite pass-rushing Khalil Mack and give Bridgewater time to find Thomas downfield. New Orleans is weaker in the middle of the offensive line but the Bears will be without Pro Bowl interior defender Akiem Hicks. Kamara probably wouldn’t have made much of an impact if he were playing because Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith are some of the fastest linebackers in the league and Chicago’s rush defense ranks 1^st in the league.

Mitch Trubisky will be back under center and his turnaround hinges on whether or not he can regain his scrambling effectiveness. Trubisky added the 2nd-most points on the ground among quarterbacks in 2018 but only has 5 rushes so far this season. The Bears are one of two teams targeting running backs on more than 30% of passes but Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery have been terrible – combining for less than 1 yard per route run. The crucial cogs for the Saints 13th-rated defense have been Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan, who both are among the 8 edge rushers with at least 30 pressures this season.

I’m expecting a solid game from Michael Thomas and he’ll need to produce as expected with Alvin Kamara out with injury. Chicago’s running backs must improve in the pass game, as Trubisky will need to get the ball out quickly with collapsing pockets, or he will need utilize his scrambling ability on Sunday. Our model favors the Bears by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 38.8 points, with Kamara out and I’ll lean with Chicago based on a 38-86-3 ATS letdown situation that applies to the Saints and is based on their 4-game winning and covering streak (and visiting a team with a winning record).

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Bears

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.3 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 49.9% 42.2%
Sack Rate 4.9% 9.0%
Int Rate 1.9% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 9.9% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 29.0% 50.0%
NYPP 6.6 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 24.7 24.2
RB YPR 4.3 4.0
Stuff Rate 19.6% 20.4%
Succ Rush Plays 50.6% 45.5%
Big Rush Yards 39.9% 38.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.2

Game

All Snaps 61.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 52.8% 45.4%
Succ Rate 49.9% 43.6%
Big Yards Rate 32.8% 47.0%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 28.4
Run Ratio 40.5% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.6 23.6
Game Control 2.0 -2.0

Points 21.3 20.3

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	30 – 28 W	-2.7	59.1% / 38.9%	2.3% / 16.7%	2.3% / 3.3%	8.2 / 6.5	52.4% / 60.9%	9.5% / 30.4%	7.0 / 7.8	65 / 59	57.7% / 44.4%	56.9% / 47.5%	45.5% / 68.4%	7.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.0%	26.4 / 17.9
2	@LA	9 – 27 L	-5.8	37.8% / 41.9%	5.4% / 9.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.1 / 8.5	50.0% / 50.0%	25.0% / 20.0%	2.9 / 3.8	57 / 61	46.5% / 50.0%	42.1% / 45.9%	16.4% / 51.3%	4.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	35.1% / 49.2%	29.8 / 28.8
3	@SEA	33 – 27 W	10.4	55.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 8.1	47.8% / 42.3%	26.1% / 26.9%	3.8 / 4.2	50 / 76	57.9% / 52.6%	52.0% / 47.4%	21.1% / 56.7%	5.3 / 6.8	2.0% / 1.3%	46.0% / 34.2%	28.9 / 23.5
4	DAL	12 – 10 W	1.2	42.9% / 44.1%	14.3% / 2.9%	3.3% / 3.0%	4.3 / 6.2	59.3% / 45.0%	18.5% / 15.0%	4.3 / 2.3	62 / 54	52.1% / 43.9%	50.0% / 44.4%	34.6% / 26.1%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.7%	43.5% / 37.0%	33.3 / 23.1
5	TB	31 – 24 W	6.3	55.6% / 39.4%	0.0% / 18.2%	2.8% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.8	29.0% / 50.0%	19.4% / 13.6%	3.6 / 4.3	67 / 55	40.8% / 46.5%	43.3% / 43.6%	42.5% / 43.7%	6.8 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.3% / 40.0%	27.0 / 30.4
6	@JAC	13 – 6 W	2.4	48.7% / 38.7%	7.7% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	5.7 / 4.9	65.4% / 25.0%	19.2% / 16.7%	4.0 / 3.1	65 / 55	62.0% / 35.0%	55.4% / 32.7%	36.5% / 35.8%	5.0 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 43.6%	32.1 / 18.1

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6
3	@WAS	31 – 15 W	13.9	55.9% / 57.4%	8.8% / 8.5%	3.2% / 7.0%	6.1 / 6.1	41.7% / 57.1%	20.8% / 19.0%	3.8 / 3.3	58 / 68	46.7% / 61.8%	50.0% / 57.4%	28.5% / 25.3%	5.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 2.9%	41.4% / 30.9%	36.9 / 28.7
4	MIN	16 – 6 W	10.0	55.9% / 40.5%	2.9% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.3	27.3% / 37.5%	21.2% / 25.0%	2.2 / 2.5	67 / 58	43.8% / 39.5%	41.8% / 39.7%	23.0% / 36.9%	4.0 / 3.8	0.0% / 3.4%	49.3% / 27.6%	32.4 / 22.3
5	@OAK	21 – 24 L	-4.6	50.0% / 53.1%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	41.2% / 64.1%	35.3% / 5.1%	2.5 / 4.3	51 / 71	50.0% / 61.4%	47.1% / 59.2%	27.1% / 28.1%	4.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 2.8%	33.3% / 54.9%	31.7 / 32.0

New Orleans Saints @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 20

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis