Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – New Orleans (+5.5) over CAROLINA

• The Panthers are overvalued after holding the Packers to 13 points in last week’s win. Carolina’s defense was not that impressive, as the Packers were not forced to punt once in the game.
• Carolina’s interior offensive line remains in shambles down RG Robert Hunt, his backup Chandler Zavala, his third string Brady Christensen, and starting C Cade Mays.
• Bryce Young averaged only 4.9 yards per pass play in Green Bay.
• The revolving door on the Panthers’ offensive line is causing communication issues, and Carolina’s offense is 25th relatively versus the blitz. New Orleans has a 41% blitz rate (7th-highest).
• The Saints traded away WR Rashid Shaheed, but Tyler Shough has a favorable matchup as head coach Kellen Moore’s offense is 9th relatively versus zone coverage compared to man, and the Panthers have an 86% zone coverage rate (5th-highest).
• Our model makes Carolina a 4.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, and Carolina applies to a negative 14-53-2 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams coming off a win as a double-digit underdog.

New Orleans is a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more.