Game Analysis

Note: The total has dropped to 43.5 since we released this play. The Under would be a 1-Star Best Bet at 43.5 (Strong Opinion at 43).

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (45) – New Orleans at CAROLINA

Lean – New Orleans (-7)

• Carolina has a -147 point differential through 8 games putting them 3rd-worst of any team in the last 25 seasons. The Panthers have decided to start Bryce Young given this season is going nowhere. Young is a clear downgrade, as he’s averaging 1.5 yppp fewer than Andy Dalton.
• Another signal Carolina is waving the white flag is trading WR Diontae Johnson, who is averaging 0.30 yards per route run more than backup wide receivers Jalen Coker and David Moore.
• Saints quarterback Derek Carr will likely be back under center this week, but he will not have his deep threat WR Rashid Shaheed, who has 15 targets with at least 20 air yards (5th).
• New Orleans WR Chris Olave had a 37% target share in his first game on the field without Shaheed last week, but he will be limited by CB Jaycee Horn, who is conceding 0.76 yards per cover snap (17th).
• The Panthers are conceding a 42% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (10th) and they will contain the screen game to RB Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 0.01 EPA/target (2nd).
• Kamara will also struggle on the ground as Carolina’s defense is no longer battling a cluster loss at linebacker. Josey Jewell returned from injury after a three-game absence last week and the Panthers allowed only 3.2 yards per rush in Denver.
• Carolina’s defense also got back edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney last week and he has a 13% pressure rate. Clowney will wreak havoc across from Saints RT Trevor Penning, who has allowed 20 pressures (9th-most).
• There are potentially two more reinforcements coming for the Panthers’ defense in starting safety Jordan Fuller and starting edge defender DJ Wonnum, who combined are worth 0.7 points by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Saints by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 38.3 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 44 points or more and 1-Star at 43.5 points (Strong Opinion down to 42.5).