Game Analysis

New Orleans (-3) vs CAROLINA

· Bryce Young had just a 33% dropback success rate in week 1 against former Saints coach Ryan Neilsen’s Falcons defense in week 1 and now the rookie QB will go against nearly the same scheme this Sunday.

· New Orleans led the NFL in week 1 with a 48% man coverage rate and the Saints conceded only a 31% pass success rate to the Titans. Carolina’s wide receivers are clearly worse than Tennessee’s WRs and I’m not sure the Panthers will be able to separate for Young.

· Young targeted RBs on 26% of passes in week 1 (7th-most) but the Saints conceded only 4.5 yards per target to opposing running backs last season (2nd).

· The Panthers also had a 26% target rate to tight ends, but New Orleans allowed a league-low 4.7 yards per target to TEs in 2022.

· Carolina will be missing both starting guards with Brady Christensen joining Austin Corbett on the IR. Backup Panthers guard Chandler Zavala surrendered 8 pressures last week and they’ll now have to roll with fourth guard Calvin Throckmorton as well.

· Carolina’s passing offense will likely come down to whether Adam Theilen can win on in inside across from Saints nickelback Alontae Taylor, who surrendered 2.28 yards per cover snap in the slot last week (4th-most).

· The Panthers’ defense was stout to open the season allowing the Falcons offense to average only a 36% success rate (8th-worst).

· However, Carolina starting CB Jaycee Horn is going to miss this game. Horn ranked 21st in PFF coverage grade last season and backup cornerback CJ Henderson will struggle across from New Orleans WR Chris Olave, who gained 3.50 yards per route run last week (3rd).

· Derek Carr led the league with an average depth of target of 11.5 in week 1 and we saw flashes of the downfield passing game from this Saints offense last year with Andy Dalton as well. I think it’s safe to say offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael wants to throw deep more often than his mentor Sean Payton. New Orleans vertical threat WR Rashid Shaheed sealed the game with a 41-yard reception on 3rd down with less than 2 minutes remaining.

· Panthers edge defender Brian Burns had 67 pressures (10th) in 2022 and I could see defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero putting Burns across from LT Trevor Penning, who had a rough second career start last game. Penning had 12 blown pass blocks in week 1, twice the amount of any other offensive lineman.

· Our model favors the Saints by 3.5 points with a predicted total of 41.2 points.