Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (40.5) – New Orleans at CAROLINA

Lean – New Orleans (-3)

· The OU closed 44.5 last season in Carolina when these teams met. It’s worth noting the wind is likely to be stronger than normal for Charlotte, but I don’t think many would say Baker Mayfield is a downgrade from Sam Darnold.

· Mayfield is averaging a career-low 5.4 yppp which I believe is unlikely to continue.

· The Saints aren’t running screens anymore without Sean Payton. New play caller Pete Carmichael is bringing a more aggressive approach. Jameis Winston’s 11.5-yard average target depth is the 2nd-highest mark in the NFL and his 3.4% screen rate is lowest in the league.

· Panthers edge defender Brian Burns has 11 pressures (4th) but he will be contained by Saints LT James Hurst, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Carolina’s defense is 18th in scoring to start the season, but I think they are likely to drop a few spots. The Browns and Giants scored on 48% of drives against the Panthers but only scored a TD on 13% of drives. Expect more touchdowns against the Panthers going forward.

· New Orleans edge defender Marcus Davenport ranked 9th in pass rushing efficiency last season and he has a favorable matchup across from rookie LT Ikem Ekwonu.

· Our model has Saints by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points, and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 41 or less.