New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean Under (46.5) – CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New Orleans

This game will feature the league’s top performing defense against its worst performing defense. The Panthers have only allowed 6 points in their first two games, while the Saints have allowed 65 points. However, I see some room for improvement in the Saints defense because they’ve been unlucky to surrender a whopping 58% of 3rd downs conversions – I expect that percentage to be more like 45% moving forward.

Carolina’s offense has been about 5 points worse than average so that unit also struggled last season, so I don’t expect the Panthers to take full advantage of the Saints’ defensive issues. New Orleans’ offense has been roughly 7 points better than average thus far but they’re at a disadvantage against this menacing Panthers’ defense. The last four games in this divisional series have been decided by less than a touchdown and it should be another good game on Sunday. I lean Under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Panthers

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.5 37.0
Succ Pass Plays 55.8% 62.3%
Sack Rate 2.4% 4.0%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.4% 21.8%
Big Pass Yards 43.9% 62.5%
NYPP 7.6 10.5

Rush

Rush Plays 19.0 32.0
RB YPR 3.8 3.9
Stuff Rate 13.0% 28.0%
Succ Rush Plays 37.8% 39.4%
Big Rush Yards 17.3% 52.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.9

Game

All Snaps 60.5 69.0
Early Down Succ 53.1% 51.5%
Succ Rate 49.6% 51.2%
Big Yards Rate 39.1% 60.6%
Yards Per Play 6.4 7.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 28.9
Run Ratio 31.5% 46.5%
Starting Field Pos 25.1 26.2
Game Control -10.4 10.4

Points 19.5 32.5

CAR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 31.0 33.5
Succ Pass Plays 47.9% 40.9%
Sack Rate 7.9% 10.5%
Int Rate 2.1% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 21.4% 10.3%
Big Pass Yards 37.3% 13.0%
NYPP 5.9 4.0

Rush

Rush Plays 35.0 19.0
RB YPR 2.5 2.5
Stuff Rate 26.3% 32.9%
Succ Rush Plays 36.8% 24.2%
Big Rush Yards 31.3% 55.5%
Yards Per Rush 2.8 3.2

Game

All Snaps 66.0 52.5
Early Down Succ 43.7% 39.6%
Succ Rate 42.4% 35.1%
Big Yards Rate 34.4% 27.0%
Yards Per Play 4.1 3.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 33.4 26.5
Run Ratio 53.2% 36.4%
Starting Field Pos 32.5 25.6
Game Control 8.2 -8.2

Points 16.0 3.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	23 – 3 W	12.4	45.8% / 46.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.2% / 2.9%	7.1 / 4.3	39.0% / 26.7%	14.6% / 26.7%	2.9 / 3.4	65 / 54	42.6% / 48.7%	41.5% / 40.7%	29.7% / 33.6%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.9%	63.1% / 27.8%	33.7 / 30.1
2	BUF	9 – 3 W	4.0	50.0% / 35.7%	15.8% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 3.8	34.5% / 21.7%	37.9% / 39.1%	2.7 / 3.0	67 / 51	44.9% / 30.6%	43.3% / 29.4%	39.1% / 20.5%	3.8 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 45.1%	31.3 / 21.1

New Orleans Saints @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Sep 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis