Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (43.5) – ATLANTA (-2.5) vs New Orleans

• The Saints averaged only 3.0 yards per carry on early downs last week as the Eagles laid out the blueprint to stop offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s scheme by shifting into a 6-1 front to make it harder on the horizontal stretch of the New Orleans zone runs. The Saints offense had just a 10% success rate on 1st and 2nd down last week.
• New Orleans lost center Erik McCoy after 3 snaps against Philadelphia. McCoy’s groin injury is expected to require surgery, and he will be out this week. Lucas Patrick moved to center and Olisaemeka Udoh came in at left guard, ultimately surrendering a 15.4% pressure rate filling in for McCoy. Furthermore, it looks like starting guard Caesar Ruiz could be sidelined this week as well.
• Derek Carr reverted to the checkdown merchant we’ve seen from him in the past without protection from the offensive line. Carr averaged just 6.5 air yards per attempt versus the Eagles compared to an 8.5-yard average depth of target in the first two weeks.
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 3.00 yards per route run (2nd) but he will likely be limited by a Falcons defense that is allowing just a 38% pass success rate to running backs (7th).
• Atlanta’s offensive line is also experiencing some attrition with C Drew Dalman’s high-ankle sprain last week and RT Kaleb McGary’s MCL sprain. McGary is allowing a 5.7% career pressure rate compared to backup Storm Norton surrendering an 8.3% career pressure rate. Norton hasn’t been a consistent starter since 2021 when he ranked 49th in pass blocking efficiency out of 54 qualifying tackles and he will struggle against New Orleans edge defender Carl Granderson, who ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Kirk Cousins is clearly laboring with his torn Achilles that he injured in week 8 last season. Cousins is leading the NFL with 6 underthrown passes, and he has a 4.9% turnover-worthy play rate (29th).
• Falcons WR Drake London has a 65% success rate (15th) but he will be contained lining up across from Marshon Lattimore, who has conceded just 0.25 yards per cover snap (3rd among perimeter cornerbacks).
• Cousins’ inability to access the vertical passing game leaves Atlanta’s running back Bijan Robinson responsible for much of the offense. Robinson leads running backs with 0.36 EPA/target but he will be limited as the Saints are conceding a league-low 21% pass success rate to running backs.
• Furthermore, New Orleans is allowing only a 33% rush success rate (3rd) and will shut down Robinson on the ground.
• Our model favors the Saints by 0.9 with a predicted total of 38.7 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 43 points or more and a 1-Star down to 42 points.