New England Patriots @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Nov 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Tennessee Titans -3, Total: 38

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Under (38) – TENNESSEE (-3) vs New England

  • We’ve got quarterback uncertainty with both offenses for this game. Will Levis was back practicing and taking the first-team reps, but his starting would be a downgrade for Tennessee’s offense. Mason Rudolph is 0.11 EPA/play better than Levis since the start of last season.
  • Drake Maye has been 4.2 points per game better than Jacoby Brissett this season by EPA. I don’t think the gap is that wide but there’s a downgrade at quarterback this week for New England’s offense if Maye can’t clear concussion protocol.
  • I’m currently projecting Maye to start and Levis to start.
  • The only notable matchup edge in this game is Tennessee’s defense is conceding only a 44% success rate to opposing tight ends (4th) and the Patriots are targeting right ends on 31% of passes (3rd-most). I expect the Titans to limit TE Hunter Henry, who is 0.31 EPA/target (6th).
  • Our model makes Tennessee a 4.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 35.8.
Share This