New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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PITTSBURGH (+3) vs New England

Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 6.4 yards per play without Ryan Shazier and Joe Haden in the lineup the last two weeks against two offenses ranked in the bottom 10 of yards per play. Haden (questionable) may return this week to provide some stability for the secondary just in time to face Tom Brady and the 3rd-best passing offense in my metrics.

Dont’a Hightower’s early season injury left the Patriots thin at linebacker and they have never fully recovered. New England has the worst rush defense according to my numbers and they have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 5.8 receptions per game, most by any running back, and the Patriots profile as an ideal matchup for him to dominate in both facets of the offense.

Both offenses should have success here and our predictive model favors New England to win 27-26. However, I’m not going to advise going against New England following a loss, even if it is their 3^rd consecutive road game. The Pats actually apply to the same 38-96-2 ATS 3^rd consecutive road game situation that applied to Minnesota last week (we had Carolina as a Best Bet) but New England is also 44-7 straight up and 38-13 ATS following a loss, including an amazing 30-2 ATS after a loss when not favored by more than 6 points. That is the best team trend I have ever seen and it continues to work year after year. However, none of those have been in their 3^rd consecutive road game and that negative situation is also something that I don’t want to buck. I’ll pass on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Steelers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.7 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 48.1%
Sack Rate 6.2% 6.3%
Int Rate 1.3% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 20.8% 20.7%
Big Pass Yards 43.3% 34.2%
NYPP 7.3 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 25.1
RB YPR 4.0 4.6
Stuff Rate 21.5% 17.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 52.8%
Big Rush Yards 31.3% 42.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.9

Game

All Snaps 67.7 64.6
Early Down Succ 53.6% 54.0%
Succ Rate 49.9% 49.8%
Big Yards Rate 41.1% 39.3%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.2 25.4
Run Ratio 40.7% 38.9%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 24.8
Game Control 6.2 -6.2

Points 28.3 19.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	27 – 42 L	1.8	33.3% / 60.5%	7.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	50.0% / 42.4%	25.0% / 9.1%	3.5 / 5.7	75 / 71	46.4% / 63.5%	41.3% / 52.1%	54.8% / 53.7%	5.0 / 7.6	0.0% / 1.4%	48.0% / 46.5%	27.8 / 25.5
2	@NO	36 – 20 W	14.2	61.0% / 51.1%	4.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.6 / 7.7	51.6% / 47.1%	22.6% / 11.8%	3.8 / 4.8	72 / 62	58.3% / 54.2%	56.9% / 50.0%	53.2% / 48.3%	7.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.4%	27.5 / 27.9
3	HOU	36 – 33 W	1.2	47.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.4 / 8.3	45.0% / 56.3%	30.0% / 15.6%	3.0 / 3.9	60 / 67	46.8% / 54.7%	46.7% / 52.2%	52.3% / 38.8%	6.6 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.8%	28.8 / 24.0
4	CAR	30 – 33 L	-1.9	60.4% / 61.3%	6.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 9.8	73.7% / 51.7%	21.1% / 20.7%	4.2 / 4.8	67 / 60	66.7% / 54.9%	64.2% / 56.7%	22.0% / 48.0%	5.6 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	28.4% / 48.3%	26.1 / 26.7
5	@TB	19 – 14 W	4.4	51.2% / 48.9%	7.0% / 4.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.8	47.8% / 55.0%	17.4% / 20.0%	4.9 / 4.5	66 / 67	53.7% / 55.6%	50.0% / 50.7%	24.6% / 37.2%	6.1 / 6.1	1.5% / 0.0%	34.8% / 29.9%	27.7 / 27.4
6	@NYJ	24 – 17 W	-0.1	39.5% / 54.0%	0.0% / 8.0%	2.6% / 4.3%	6.8 / 6.7	61.5% / 40.0%	7.7% / 24.0%	4.6 / 3.0	64 / 75	49.0% / 50.9%	48.4% / 49.3%	29.5% / 46.0%	5.9 / 5.5	1.6% / 1.3%	40.6% / 33.3%	28.7 / 24.0
7	ATL	23 – 7 W	11.4	48.4% / 58.8%	6.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.6	56.4% / 54.5%	12.8% / 18.2%	4.2 / 5.5	70 / 56	57.7% / 65.9%	52.9% / 57.1%	38.4% / 26.8%	5.8 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	55.7% / 39.3%	28.8 / 21.9
8	LAC	21 – 13 W	4.4	50.0% / 46.7%	6.0% / 3.3%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.3 / 6.4	43.8% / 66.7%	28.1% / 19.0%	3.0 / 7.5	82 / 51	46.8% / 60.0%	47.6% / 54.9%	21.3% / 38.7%	5.0 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 41.2%	30.5 / 20.5
10	@DEN	41 – 16 W	14.7	65.8% / 39.4%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.8 / 6.7	55.2% / 44.8%	13.8% / 13.8%	3.4 / 4.1	67 / 62	67.9% / 40.0%	61.2% / 41.9%	32.1% / 46.2%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.6%	43.3% / 46.8%	37.9 / 23.7
11	@OAK	33 – 8 W	15.9	56.1% / 45.3%	9.8% / 7.5%	0.0% / 2.0%	8.1 / 4.4	55.0% / 76.2%	25.0% / 14.3%	4.5 / 5.2	61 / 74	60.4% / 59.6%	55.7% / 54.1%	40.2% / 24.4%	6.9 / 4.6	0.0% / 8.1%	32.8% / 28.4%	23.1 / 23.0
12	MIA	35 – 17 W	13.1	44.8% / 47.5%	3.4% / 17.5%	3.6% / 6.1%	7.6 / 3.9	42.9% / 42.1%	16.7% / 31.6%	4.8 / 3.5	71 / 59	50.0% / 51.1%	43.7% / 45.8%	69.4% / 23.5%	5.9 / 3.7	1.4% / 1.7%	59.2% / 32.2%	31.6 / 25.9
13	@BUF	23 – 3 W	9.1	54.5% / 18.4%	9.1% / 10.5%	3.3% / 2.9%	7.4 / 2.2	40.5% / 69.2%	18.9% / 11.5%	5.2 / 7.0	70 / 64	51.9% / 41.7%	47.1% / 39.1%	39.1% / 44.0%	6.2 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 40.6%	29.3 / 23.7
14	@MIA	20 – 27 L	-7.4	33.3% / 45.0%	4.4% / 5.0%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.1	30.0% / 40.6%	40.0% / 21.9%	2.5 / 3.8	55 / 72	40.9% / 50.0%	32.7% / 43.1%	56.9% / 35.3%	4.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	18.2% / 44.4%	24.2 / 28.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 18 W	5.8	45.9% / 43.2%	2.7% / 18.9%	2.8% / 3.3%	6.9 / 4.9	16.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	1.5 / 2.3	62 / 62	41.0% / 41.7%	33.9% / 40.3%	35.2% / 45.1%	4.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	20.8 / 28.6
2	MIN	26 – 9 W	9.3	40.5% / 32.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.7	41.2% / 50.0%	20.6% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.6	71 / 60	48.1% / 42.9%	40.8% / 38.3%	34.1% / 45.1%	4.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.7%	47.9% / 33.3%	31.8 / 23.9
3	@CHI	17 – 23 L	-4.4	47.6% / 33.3%	7.1% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.0 / 3.5	64.7% / 44.7%	5.9% / 28.9%	4.1 / 5.8	59 / 62	56.3% / 42.0%	52.5% / 40.3%	29.4% / 55.3%	4.8 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	28.8% / 61.3%	36.4 / 32.7
4	@BAL	26 – 9 W	8.6	41.9% / 52.9%	3.2% / 7.8%	3.3% / 4.3%	6.7 / 4.0	46.5% / 46.7%	23.3% / 46.7%	4.0 / 5.5	74 / 66	45.6% / 56.9%	44.6% / 51.5%	26.4% / 25.3%	5.2 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	58.1% / 22.7%	31.1 / 28.5
5	JAC	9 – 30 L	-4.5	42.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	9.3% / 7.1%	5.4 / 5.1	40.0% / 40.5%	35.0% / 24.3%	3.5 / 6.2	76 / 53	41.0% / 36.6%	42.1% / 39.6%	44.5% / 60.1%	4.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	26.3% / 69.8%	21.8 / 26.4
6	@KC	19 – 13 W	5.8	57.7% / 35.1%	3.8% / 8.1%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 6.0	53.8% / 40.0%	17.9% / 33.3%	5.0 / 1.9	65 / 52	64.0% / 39.5%	55.4% / 36.5%	61.7% / 62.5%	6.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.8%	21.3 / 31.7
7	CIN	29 – 14 W	7.2	48.0% / 35.3%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	10.7 / 3.2	37.0% / 22.2%	17.4% / 38.9%	3.4 / 4.0	71 / 52	49.1% / 32.4%	40.8% / 30.8%	56.5% / 35.6%	6.0 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	64.8% / 34.6%	29.4 / 29.1
8	@DET	20 – 15 W	1.9	41.9% / 48.9%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.2 / 8.7	41.9% / 50.0%	22.6% / 27.3%	2.5 / 3.2	62 / 69	41.9% / 58.2%	41.9% / 49.3%	53.2% / 58.1%	6.4 / 7.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 31.9%	24.8 / 22.8
10	@IND	20 – 17 W	-5.1	50.0% / 40.7%	3.1% / 11.1%	3.2% / 4.2%	7.1 / 7.3	36.7% / 36.7%	36.7% / 33.3%	2.9 / 2.4	62 / 57	44.9% / 40.0%	43.5% / 38.6%	38.9% / 45.1%	5.1 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 52.6%	31.7 / 21.6
11	TEN	40 – 17 W	9.1	55.3% / 41.0%	6.4% / 12.8%	0.0% / 11.8%	6.0 / 6.8	33.3% / 32.0%	16.7% / 32.0%	2.8 / 2.2	71 / 64	55.6% / 42.9%	47.9% / 37.5%	26.7% / 53.3%	5.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	33.8% / 39.1%	44.3 / 22.2
12	GB	31 – 28 W	-1.4	65.2% / 40.0%	2.2% / 13.3%	4.4% / 0.0%	7.4 / 7.6	45.8% / 54.2%	8.3% / 20.8%	5.0 / 3.3	70 / 54	57.1% / 45.0%	58.6% / 46.3%	38.1% / 60.3%	6.6 / 5.7	1.4% / 0.0%	34.3% / 44.4%	31.7 / 26.9
13	@CIN	23 – 20 W	-7.5	46.3% / 44.7%	2.4% / 5.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.9 / 5.9	54.5% / 72.7%	18.2% / 9.1%	4.2 / 5.9	63 / 60	52.0% / 56.5%	49.2% / 55.0%	36.9% / 26.1%	5.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 36.7%	21.6 / 21.6
14	BAL	39 – 38 W	1.6	56.7% / 45.7%	4.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.3 / 7.5	43.8% / 65.4%	18.8% / 11.5%	3.7 / 5.8	83 / 61	50.8% / 56.9%	54.2% / 54.1%	41.3% / 49.6%	6.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	19.3% / 42.6%	21.0 / 26.0

New England Patriots @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Dec 17

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis