Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New England (-2.5) over NY JETS

· Zach Wilson’s lack of ability to diagnose coverage kills him against the Patriots. Wilson is 0-4 versus Bill Belichick with a 6.6% interception rate.

· New York’s offense averaged a league-worst -0.43 EPA/play in week 2. Wilson’s predictable cadence allowed Micah Parsons to post a 0.57-second pass rush get-off time which was the quickest of any defender in the last two years.

· Jets RT Mekhi Becton has been mediocre getting his first action in two seasons. Becton ranks 10th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from New England edge defender Matthew Judon, who had 68 pressures in 2022 (8th).

· Patriots DT Christian Barmore had 48 pressures his last full season as a rookie (10th) and ranks 22nd in pass-rushing efficiency to start 2023. Barmore will be collapsing the pocket all afternoon across from Jets C Connor McGovern, who has surrendered 6 pressures (3rd-most).

· Garrett Wilson has accounted for 38% of New York’s receiving yards and both touchdowns in 2023 but he will be contained by New England CB Christian Gonzalez, who ranks 5th in PFF coverage grade.

· The status of Jets starting safety Tony Adams is up in the air and New York’s defense is already relatively weak defending tight ends, allowing 7.8 yards per target last year (23rd). Mac Jones will feel comfortable throwing to Hunter Henry, who leads all tight ends with 0.91 EPA/target.

· Jones loves throwing to the middle of the field in general with a 26% inside target rate (7th-highest). This should serve New England’s offense well especially if the Jets are without starting nickelback Michael Carter, who is allowing 0.45 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).

· New England RG Mike Onwenu only conceded 1 pressure in the 27 pass-blocking snaps he got last week. Onwenu should be in line for a larger workload on Sunday in his second game back and he will be vital in limiting New York interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency. Onwenu’s return as a mainstay of the offense crucially takes backup Atonio Mafi off the field. Mafi has blown 5 pass blocks which is the most among all guards in the NFL.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 36.6 points, and the Jets apply to a 67-131-4 ATS situation while the Patriots apply to a 41-14 ATS week 3 angle that plays on teams that are 0-2 ATS.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 -120 odds or better.