New England Patriots @

New York Jets

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 285
Odds: New York Jets +6, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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New England (-6) vs NY JETS

Bill Belichick is 10-5 ATS versus rookie quarterbacks in New England with the opposing offenses averaging just 12.5 points per game, so Zack Wilson could be a bit confused by what he’s seeing pre-snap.

Wilson was aggressive in his debut with a 10.6-yard average depth of target (second highest of the week) but the rookie didn’t get much help from his supporting cast. New York’s wide receivers had five drops and rookie RG Alijah-Vera Tucker surrendered six pressures including a sack. Starting left tackle Mekhi Becton (worth 0.7 points) will be sidelined four to six weeks with a dislocated right knee cap but New England’s defense will be without former Defensive Player of the Year CB Stephon Gilmore again. However, Belichick’s defense should shut down the Jets this week even without him.

The Patriots lost two fumbles and one of them was in the red zone on a potential game-winning drive with only minutes remaining. The turnovers were the difference as New England averaged 0.6 yppl more than Miami did in that loss.

Mac Jones finished with a 74% accurate-pass rate (3rd) in part due to averaging only 6.7 air yards per attempt. RT Trent Brown left the game after seven snaps and his replacement Justin Herron surrendered an 8% pressure rate and was eventually replaced by Yasir Durant. Brown could potentially return this week and Jones should improve against a Jets secondary that does not have a CB taken inside the first five rounds of the draft.

Our model favors the Patriots by 4.5 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points, but I think the line is fair given how well Belichick’s defense has performed against rookie quarterbacks.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Jets


  • Pass Plays 39.0 29.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 56.4% 51.7%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 6.9%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 3.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 10.3% 22.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.5% 44.1%
  • NYPP 7.2 7.0


  • Rush Plays 30.0 23.0
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 13.3% 30.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.7% 56.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.8% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.2


  • All Snaps 69.0 52.0
  • Early Down Succ 52.8% 58.5%
  • Succ Rate 56.5% 53.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.9% 43.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.9% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.8 27.0
  • Run Ratio 43.5% 44.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -3.2 3.2
  • Points 16.0 17.0
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