New England Patriots @

Minnesota Vikings

Thu, Nov 24
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 109
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -2.5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – 6 PT Teaser – New England (+8.5) with Pittsburgh (+8.5) (both at +7.5 or more)

New England (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

· The Vikings had only a 32% success rate on offense last week and New England’s defense is similar to the Dallas defense. The Patriots have a 40% pressure rate, which trails only the Cowboys’ defense.

· Minnesota LT Christian Darrisaw ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency but he is out due to two concussions. Backup tackle Blake Brandel allowed two sacks filling in for Darrisaw last Sunday.

· The Vikings have surrendered a 54% pressure rate when Darrisaw was off the field for concussions the last two games.

· New England edge defender Matt Judon collected 1.5 more sacks last week and now has a career-high 13 sacks through just ten games.

· The lack of mobility from Kirk Cousins makes him terrible under pressure where he has only a 42% completion rate.

· Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (13th), but I expect him to be limited as Bill Belichick does well taking away an offense’s top option.

· Running back Rhamondre Stevenson led the Patriots last week with six receptions for 56 yards while RB Damien Harris added 28 yards on two catches. Stevenson also forced six total missed tackles against the Jets. Stevenson is averaging 6 receptions per game since Mac Jones came back from his ankle sprain.

· Jones will continually go to RB screens in this matchup. Minnesota’s defense plays soft coverage leaving space for offenses to attack underneath. The Vikings are surrendering 6.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (28th).

· Jakobi Meyers has a 67% success rate for New England which leads all wide receivers in the NFL. Meyers mostly operates out of the slot and Chandon Sullivan is surrendering 1.64 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 20th out of 22 qualifying nickelbacks.

· Minnesota’s defense surrendered 8.2 yppp the last two weeks without starting CB Cameron Dantzler and now backup CB Andrew Booth is out as well. Furthermore, backup CB Akayleb Evans won’t be in uniform with a concussion. This is the week for Mac Jones to turn his season around.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points.

New England is part of a 1-Star Teaser play with Pittsburgh.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Vikings
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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