New England Patriots @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Jan 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: Miami Dolphins +6.5, Total: 40

Game Analysis

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Lean – MIAMI (+6.5) over New England

The Patriots have locked up a playoff spot and could pull starters in the second half if the Bills are crushing the Jets, which would take away their opportunity¬†to win the AFC East. Miami’s defense has a 28.7% pressure rate (2nd) but Mac Jones should have time to operate in the pocket as New England’s offensive line ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency. The Patriots 7th-rated ground game will be featured against a Dolphins rush defense ranked 24th.

Tua Tagovailoa will be under pressure all game as New England edge defender Matt Judon has 12.5 sacks (7th) and RT Jesse Davis ranks 49th in pass blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying tackles. Miami targets tight ends on a league-high 29.3% of passes but the Patriots have only conceded 386 yards all season to opposing TEs, lowest in the NFL.

Our model makes New England a 3.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 38.8.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Dolphins
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.13 34.44
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 44.3%
  • Sack Rate 4.7% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 4.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.2% 18.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.8% 32.6%
  • NYPP 6.84 5.59



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.88 26.31
  • RB YPR 4.37 4.44
  • Stuff Rate 24.9% 20.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.1% 48.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 48.6% 44.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.36 4.53




Game

  • All Snaps 62.00 60.75
  • Early Down Succ 52.8% 49.5%
  • Succ Rate 50.4% 45.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.8% 37.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.69 5.13
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.04 29.13
  • Run Ratio 46.6% 43.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 3.63 -3.63
 
  • Points 27.38 16.88
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