New England Patriots @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Miami Dolphins +18.5, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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New England (-18.5) vs MIAMI

There are plenty of story lines but not a lot of value in this week 2 matchup. The Antonio Brown mess continues with a rape allegation, although signs point towards him making his debut this week. Brown is coming off a slightly down season, gaining just 1.94 yards per route run in 2018, his first time below 2 yards per route run since 2012, but he should add a good mix of short and vertical threat to New England’s offense. Brown has been targeted more than any player on throws of 2 seconds or less since 2016 and that will help Tom Brady, who likes to get the ball out quick. However, Brown’s most frequent route over the past two season was the go route and I expect those numbers to decline given that Brady is just a mediocre deep passer at this point in his career. The Patriots will now have an excellent wide receiver core with Brown joining Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, but secondary is the strength of this Dolphins defense and I believe Bill Belichick will pound the rock in a game he knows he almost assuredly will win.

Miami will give Ryan Fitzpatrick another shot under center and it’s unfortunate for him he’ll probably be facing the league’s two best secondaries in his first two starts. The Dolphins will eventually start Josh Rosen but it probably makes the most sense for them to wait until week 6 after their bye when they play the Redskins to get the young quarterback some confidence.

Belichick has just a 14-10 straight up record versus former assistants – losing to Vrabel (Houston) and Patricia (Detroit) last season – yet this spread has ballooned from the look-ahead line of Patriots -10.5 as it looks like Brian Flores’s Dolphins are tanking. Our model makes New England a 16.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.1, but road favorites of more than 14 points are 8-1 ATS against divisional rivals since 1980 (as far back as my database goes) and teams that lose their opener by 28 points or more are just 4-17 ATS in week 2 against a team coming off a win. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Dolphins


  • Pass Plays 34.0 47.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 58.9% 31.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.6% 8.7%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 6.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 23.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.4% 29.3%
  • NYPP 9.1 4.4


  • Rush Plays 32.0 14.0
  • RB YPR 3.5 2.3
  • Stuff Rate 19.2% 28.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.7% 43.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 24.6% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.5 2.6


  • All Snaps 66.0 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 56.6% 38.4%
  • Succ Rate 55.4% 34.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.9% 25.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 4.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 25.1
  • Run Ratio 48.6% 23.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.6 27.0
  • Game Control 16.2 -16.2
  • Points 38.0 1.5
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