Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *LA CHARGERS (-5.5) over New England
New England has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL with five home games through the first 7 weeks and the two road games have been against the Jets and Texans. At the same time, the Chargers have seen the most difficult schedule in the league, with their opponents being 3.5 points better than average according to our metrics.
I expect Justin Herbert to feature Pro Bowl WR Keenan Allen on the inside as Patriots nickelback Jonathan Jones underwent surgery that officially put an end to his 2021 campaign earlier this week. Herbert will need to get the ball out fast to avoid edge defender Matthew Judon, who has 6.5 sacks (4th) and will be up against RT Storm Norton, who ranks 47th out of 53 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.
New Orleans and Tampa Bay are the only two above average defenses Mac Jones has gone up against this year and he averaged only 5.2 yppp in those games. New England guard Michael Onwenu is out of position at right tackle and could struggle to stay in front of Joey Bosa, who ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency.
Our model favors the Chargers by 9.1 points coming off their bye week, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, and the Chargers are a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.14
37.29
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
47.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.5%
36.6%
-
NYPP
7.06
6.45
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.00
27.71
-
RB YPR
3.33
3.69
-
Stuff Rate
30.4%
22.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.9%
45.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.5%
32.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.49
3.74
Game
-
All Snaps
62.14
65.00
-
Early Down Succ
52.1%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
49.7%
46.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
36.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.73
5.34
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.91
29.14
-
Run Ratio
38.7%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.87
-1.87
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.00
33.00
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.1%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.7%
31.5%
-
NYPP
6.54
6.21
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.17
29.67
-
RB YPR
3.71
5.04
-
Stuff Rate
23.8%
15.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.5%
60.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.93
5.20
Game
-
All Snaps
66.17
62.67
-
Early Down Succ
50.8%
59.7%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
55.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.4%
35.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.67
5.73
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.30
29.49
-
Run Ratio
34.3%
47.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-0.80
0.80
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIA |
16 – 17 L |
-3.18 |
56.4% /
51.7% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
7.21 /
6.38 |
56.7% /
56.5% |
13.3% /
30.4% |
4.17 /
3.22 |
69 /
52 |
52.8% /
58.5% |
56.5% /
53.8% |
36.9% /
43.1% |
5.88 /
4.98 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
44.2% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
25 – 6 W |
10.53 |
36.4% /
35.1% |
9.1% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
12.1% |
4.82 /
4.97 |
54.2% /
51.6% |
20.8% /
29.0% |
4.21 /
4.90 |
57 /
68 |
50.0% /
45.1% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
48.1% /
50.0% |
4.56 /
4.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
45.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 28 L |
-10.20 |
35.8% /
50.0% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
3.9% /
0.0% |
4.74 /
4.58 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
23.5% /
18.4% |
2.88 /
3.74 |
70 /
62 |
37.0% /
53.2% |
37.1% /
50.0% |
28.8% /
9.3% |
4.29 /
4.06 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
61.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
TB |
17 – 19 L |
-0.20 |
54.3% /
40.9% |
8.7% /
2.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.41 /
5.93 |
25.0% /
53.3% |
75.0% /
23.3% |
-0.13 /
3.97 |
54 /
74 |
59.5% /
46.3% |
50.0% /
45.9% |
22.6% /
42.3% |
5.44 /
5.14 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
14.8% /
40.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
@HST |
25 – 22 W |
-5.14 |
54.8% /
46.9% |
3.2% /
9.4% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.29 /
9.16 |
56.7% /
20.8% |
30.0% /
12.5% |
4.20 /
2.79 |
61 /
56 |
57.1% /
29.7% |
55.7% /
35.7% |
38.9% /
47.8% |
5.77 /
6.43 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
DAL |
29 – 35 L |
2.00 |
52.2% /
52.9% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
2.0% |
9.35 /
8.73 |
51.9% /
35.5% |
18.5% /
29.0% |
4.44 /
3.94 |
50 /
82 |
57.5% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
46.3% |
56.4% /
39.7% |
6.70 /
6.91 |
2.0% /
1.2% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
54 – 13 W |
19.28 |
54.8% /
52.3% |
2.4% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
9.60 /
5.39 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
17.6% |
4.63 /
3.65 |
74 /
61 |
50.8% /
55.6% |
52.7% /
52.5% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
7.45 /
4.90 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.2% /
27.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
20 – 16 W |
1.99 |
55.1% /
40.9% |
4.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.82 /
6.05 |
41.4% /
70.4% |
37.9% /
18.5% |
3.10 /
4.67 |
78 /
49 |
43.9% /
63.2% |
50.0% /
57.1% |
24.1% /
23.4% |
5.44 /
5.29 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
37.2% /
55.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
DAL |
17 – 20 L |
-2.86 |
53.5% /
69.0% |
4.7% /
6.9% |
4.9% /
3.7% |
7.28 /
7.62 |
52.6% /
64.5% |
15.8% /
6.5% |
5.00 /
6.39 |
62 /
60 |
56.3% /
69.4% |
53.2% /
66.7% |
40.9% /
40.7% |
6.58 /
6.98 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
51.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
@KC |
30 – 24 W |
3.88 |
53.8% /
54.3% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.05 /
5.46 |
40.9% /
69.0% |
27.3% /
3.4% |
3.50 /
6.00 |
61 /
75 |
52.1% /
60.9% |
49.2% /
60.0% |
32.1% /
29.7% |
5.77 /
5.67 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
36.1% /
38.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
LV |
28 – 14 W |
9.59 |
46.3% /
34.2% |
4.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.17 /
4.34 |
61.8% /
38.9% |
23.5% /
27.8% |
4.94 /
2.67 |
75 /
56 |
58.6% /
39.5% |
53.3% /
35.7% |
35.1% /
33.6% |
5.07 /
3.80 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.3% /
32.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
CLV |
47 – 42 W |
-2.61 |
46.7% /
54.5% |
4.4% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.47 /
9.12 |
60.9% /
57.1% |
13.0% /
17.1% |
4.87 /
6.57 |
68 /
68 |
51.0% /
63.5% |
51.5% /
55.9% |
54.5% /
53.6% |
7.25 /
7.81 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
51.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
@BLT |
6 – 34 L |
-14.75 |
39.0% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
2.6% /
7.4% |
4.44 /
4.67 |
33.3% /
65.8% |
25.0% /
21.1% |
2.17 /
4.92 |
53 /
68 |
43.2% /
61.8% |
37.7% /
58.8% |
25.8% /
32.8% |
3.92 /
4.81 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.6% /
55.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Los Angeles Chargers