New England Patriots @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Dec 6
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +1, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – Under (48) – New England at LA CHARGERS

Bill Belichick is 9-4 ATS versus rookie quarterbacks during his time in New England with the opposing offenses averaging just 12.7 points per game and I expect Justin Herbert to struggle on Sunday. Keenan Allen is averaging 2.08 yards per route run (16th) but he will likely see double teams most of the afternoon on the inside. Meanwhile, Mike Williams will be locked up on the outside by Stephon Gilmore, who just held DeAndre Hopkins to just five receptions for 55 yards last week.

The Patriots have found their formula to win football games and it is basically to avoid a shootout at all costs. Neither New England nor Arizona had a play go for 20 yards in the Patriots’ 20-17 win over the Cardinals last week. Cam Newton averaged just 3.3 yards per pass play in the win versus the Cardinals and I expect the Patriots to avoid the passing game as much as they can in this matchup. Newton’s 46 rushing yards last Sunday were more than his previous three games combined (43).

Our model favors the Chargers by 0.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.1 points and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 48 points or higher (Strong Opinion at 47.5). I also lean with the LAC a bit, despite Belichick’s good record against rookies, as the Chargers apply to a 54-9 ATS contrary situation that applies to teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Chargers
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 30.6 30.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 55.1%
  • Sack Rate 6.9% 4.6%
  • Int Rate 4.4% 4.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.7% 21.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 29.7% 39.1%
  • NYPP 6.2 7.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.3 28.6
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 17.0% 15.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.1% 51.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.0% 33.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 62.9 58.7
  • Early Down Succ 52.4% 57.7%
  • Succ Rate 50.4% 54.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.9% 38.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 30.4
  • Run Ratio 51.6% 48.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.3 26.5
  • Game Control -2.5 2.5
 
  • Points 20.8 23.2
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