Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New England (+3 -105) over LAS VEGAS

· Las Vegas is averaging only 15.8 points per game (29th) after scoring 23.2 points per game last year. The Raiders offense can’t get off the ground because of the running game averaging -0.22 EPA/rush (31st). It is unlikely to get better on Sunday as New England’s defense is conceding only a 32.8% rush success rate (5th).

· Jimmy Garoppolo could be without his starting right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and backup Thayer Munford will struggle against Bill Belichick’s complicated pass rush scheme. The Patriots’ defense has a 47.5% blitz rate (4th-highest) and uses simulated pressures about 50% more than the NFL average.

· New England’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass-blocking efficiency but they’ve gone exclusively against defenses ranked above average in pressure rate with the Cowboys, Jets, and Dolphins all ranking in the top 5. Mac Jones will need to be aware of edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who had a sack and 4 tackles for loss last week, but I expect the Patriots to slow Crosby down by using the ground game.

· New England ran for 206 yards versus Las Vegas last season and the Raiders defense ranks 25th in EPA/rush this year.

· The Patriots have lost a league-worst 24 points from special teams, and it is unlikely a Belichick-coached team will continue to lose nearly 5 points a game in this department.

· I realize that New England’s offense has been horrible, but the Patriots apply to a 129-50-6 ATS situation that plays on teams that have scored 17 points or fewer in 4 or more consecutive games. Also, teams that score single-digit points in consecutive losses are 148-101-5 ATS the next week, including last week’s Best Bet win on Atlanta -1 (those games also tend to go over – 143-106-5 Over). The Patriots apply to a 76-23-2 ATS subset of that angle.

· The Patriots also apply to a 61-10-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams with a season to date spread record when getting points from a losing team.

· Our model favors the Raiders by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.4 points, and the situation is strongly in favor of the Patriots.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 to -115 odds.