Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LAS VEGAS (+1) over New England

Lean – Under (44.5)

· The Raiders are allowing -0.131 EPA/rush (5th) and they should shut down New England’s ground game.

· Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson left the game last Monday night with an ankle injury which is a blow to Mac Jones’ passing game.

· Stevenson leads all running backs in pass blocking efficiency, and he gained 1.46 yards per route run (4th). Stevenson is one of the few running backs in the NFL worth a half point to the spread.

· Jones’ protection will also likely be without right tackle Isaih Wynn. Backup tackle Yodny Cajuste is surrendering a 10.4% pressure rate and he has no chance to block Las Vegas edge defender Maxx Crosby, who has 11.5 sacks (5th).

· WR Jakobi Meyers (concussion) could miss another week and he is worth a half point to New England’s offense. Meyers has a 62% success rate (5th).

· Raiders tight end Darren Waller (hamstring) and slot wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (oblique) practiced this week and could return to action, which would give Derek Carr his full complement of receiving weapons for the first game since week 5.

· Las Vegas WR Mack Hollins is averaging 0.37 EPA/target (19th) but he will be blanketed by CB Jonathan Jones, who ranks 18th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Davante Adams is gaining 2.69 yards per route run (3rd) and is one of just four receivers who have already surpassed 1,200 yards.

· New England’s defense has already faced the other three elite wide receivers on that list and surrendered an average of 108 yards per game to Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson.

· The Patriots are conceding a 40% rush success rate (8th) and they should contain Josh Jacobs on the ground.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 41.0 points, and the situation is favorable as Vegas applies to 62-24-3 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss and a 110-45-3 ATS situation the plays on better than average offensive teams at home against strong defensive teams.

Las Vegas is a Strong Opinion at pick or better.