New England Patriots @

Kansas City Chiefs

Mon, Oct 5
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 281
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (49.5) – KANSAS CITY (-10.5) vs New England

This game was moved to Monday night over virus concerns and Patriots’ quarterback Cam Newton is out after contracting the virus. Veteran Brian Hoyer is the Pats’ backup quarterback and our metrics have Brian Hoyer 4.2 points worse than Cam Newton (the market moved 4 points). Unfortunately, most books cancelled all action on the game after it was rescheduled so our Strong Opinion on Under 53 released early last week is no longer valid.

Since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes has only lost two games at Arrowhead and both opponents, Indianapolis and Houston, kept the ball out of his hands with more than 40 rushes a piece. New England’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels knows this and also knows he has a great ball control game to begin with as the Patriots’ rushing offense ranks 3rd thus far in 2020. New England’s offensive line helped give their running backs 2.8 yards before contact per attempt last week and they should stick to the rushing attack even without Cam Newton’s elite running ability. The Patriots will look to make this game as short as possible by constantly running the ball just like they did at the beginning of the Conference Championship game two years ago when they led 14-0 at halftime. New England’s offense had the ball for more than 21 minutes in the first half of that game and the Chiefs only ran 16 plays, one of which was a strip-sack on a Hail Mary play as time expired. The rushing attack will need to work given that New England’s top receiving threat, Julian Edelman, is likely to be kept in check this week. Edelman leads the NFL with 3.46 yards per route run in the slot but he’ll be up against All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu, who played 60% of his defensive snaps at slot cornerback against the Ravens last Monday night.

I also believe Bill Belichick will learn from Baltimore’s mistakes against Mahomes last week and his own mistakes against Russell Wilson in week 2. Belichick knows he can’t allow Kansas City’s receivers to get behind his secondary because Mahomes can put the ball on the money as Wilson did against New England’s man-coverage – three touchdowns on passes with 20+ air yards. Belichick will likely play plenty of cover 4, which will force the Chiefs to check the ball down and put together long drives.

Kansas City is the best team in the NFL but the Patriots have the best coach in NFL history and he’s in a spot that has traditionally been very good based on a number of factors. When Belichick’s team is allowing an average of 21 points or more for the season the Patriots are 57-30-1 ATS since 2010 (6-1 ATS without Tom Brady), including 41-13-1 ATS when not laying more than 17 points. The Pats are also at their best when facing a good defense, which is a sign of good coaching, as New England is now 76-37-1 ATS when facing a team that is allowing less than 20.5 points per game, including 31-8 ATS when not favored by 3 points or more (3-1 ATS no Brady). Belichick’s defense figures to play better and their offense traditionally plays relatively better against better defensive units. When his team is allowing 21 points per game or more and is facing a team that is allowing less than 21 points per game the Patriots are 11-0 straight up and 11-0 ATS from -2.5 to underdog (dog in the majority of those). New England lost to Kansas City 16-23 last season, but Belichick is 57-25 ATS with the Patriots when facing a team that beat him the last time out, including 8-1 ATS in such games without Brady. Our model currently favors the Chiefs by 12.2 but this is a contest in which you can expect the best from the Patriots. The model predicts a total of just 48.6 points and I think the Patriots will scheme this game into an under, as Belichick usually finds a way to slow down high-scoring opponents. The under is no longer a Strong Opinion but I’ll lean with the under tonight. I’d still rather take a chance with New England +10.5 due to Belichick’s history but our model favor the Chiefs by 12.2 points, so the line value resides a bit with KC, so I’ll pass the side.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Chiefs
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.0 31.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 59.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.1% 5.3%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 4.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 10.3% 17.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.4% 35.4%
  • NYPP 6.9 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 35.0 26.3
  • RB YPR 4.4 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 17.7% 14.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.5% 56.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 48.6% 34.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 67.0 58.0
  • Early Down Succ 57.7% 61.6%
  • Succ Rate 55.0% 57.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.6% 34.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 28.2
  • Run Ratio 52.8% 45.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.0 26.6
  • Game Control 3.7 -3.7
 
  • Points 29.0 22.0
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