New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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JACKSONVILLE (pick) vs New England

Blake Bortles found success in last year’s AFC Championship game versus New England, throwing for 7.0 yards per pass play with most of this success coming on plays when the Patriots couldn’t get to him. Bortles was 18 of 24 for 234 yards and a touchdown when kept clean and the Jaguars almost reached the Super Bowl. Patriots’ edge rusher Trey Flowers had a great game in week 1 with 7 pressures, 2 sacks, and 3 run stops and his matchup will be crucial versus Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson, who didn’t allow a pressure in 37 pass protection snaps against the Giants. Leonard Fournette is questionable, but his status isn’t vital to the Jacksonville’s offense, as the other Jaguars running backs had a higher success rate and added more expected points per target last season. New England’s defense surrendered 4.7 yards per rush last season and 4.9 ypr last week and I expect T.J. Yeldon to have a great day on the ground if Fournette isn’t able to go. The Patriots were fortunate to stop Houston on 10 of 12 3rd-4th down situations and I expect them to allow more conversions going forward.

The best way to stop the New England offense is to pressure Tom Brady without blitzing, which is what Jacksonville’s defensive front specializes in. The Jaguars had an 8.8% sack rate last year (2nd), with the pressure mostly coming from the guys up front, and Malik Jackson, Yannick Ngakoue, and Lerentee McCray all finished with 5 pressures last week.

The advanced spread for this game was a pick ’em and both teams had nearly identical week 1 grades according to our metrics. We still make the game pick ’em and don’t see enough value to play this one.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Jaguars

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.0 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 48.7% 43.8%
Sack Rate 5.1% 4.1%
Int Rate 1.3% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 16.0% 19.5%
Big Pass Yards 37.4% 28.6%
NYPP 6.2 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 30.0
RB YPR 3.6 4.0
Stuff Rate 10.8% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 37.4% 40.9%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 54.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.5

Game

All Snaps 67.0 71.0
Early Down Succ 47.6% 44.7%
Succ Rate 44.0% 43.8%
Big Yards Rate 38.2% 40.1%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 25.4
Run Ratio 41.7% 42.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.7 30.6
Game Control -1.3 1.3

Points 23.5 25.5

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.5 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 50.9% 38.4%
Sack Rate 1.5% 5.3%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 19.9% 14.0%
Big Pass Yards 35.2% 28.7%
NYPP 6.7 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 27.5 24.0
RB YPR 3.4 4.1
Stuff Rate 16.3% 21.2%
Succ Rush Plays 36.3% 35.4%
Big Rush Yards 50.7% 56.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.1

Game

All Snaps 67.0 62.0
Early Down Succ 46.6% 39.9%
Succ Rate 45.3% 37.1%
Big Yards Rate 40.8% 38.1%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 28.8
Run Ratio 41.3% 38.7%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 27.7
Game Control 8.5 -8.5

Points 25.5 17.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	27 – 20 W	10.6	48.8% / 29.7%	4.9% / 8.1%	2.6% / 2.9%	6.5 / 4.3	38.7% / 45.7%	9.7% / 25.7%	3.9 / 4.8	72 / 72	47.4% / 43.1%	44.4% / 37.5%	38.0% / 37.4%	5.4 / 4.5	2.8% / 1.4%	43.1% / 48.6%	25.4 / 35.4
2	@JAC	20 – 31 L	-13.1	48.6% / 57.8%	5.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 8.4	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 16.0%	3.3 / 4.2	62 / 70	47.9% / 46.3%	43.5% / 50.0%	38.3% / 42.7%	4.9 / 6.9	1.6% / 1.4%	40.3% / 35.7%	30.1 / 25.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	20 – 15 W	3.9	44.1% / 28.2%	2.9% / 5.1%	3.0% / 2.7%	4.9 / 5.4	36.7% / 34.8%	16.7% / 30.4%	4.6 / 5.0	64 / 62	46.8% / 31.9%	40.6% / 30.6%	38.8% / 38.0%	4.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.9% / 37.1%	31.5 / 25.3
2	NE	31 – 20 W	13.1	57.8% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	2.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.9	36.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 12.0%	4.2 / 3.3	70 / 62	46.3% / 47.9%	50.0% / 43.5%	42.7% / 38.3%	6.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.6%	35.7% / 40.3%	25.7 / 30.1

New England Patriots @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Sep 16

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis