New England Patriots @

Houston Texans

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Houston Texans +2, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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New England (-1.5) vs HOUSTON

The Patriots had a league-high 67% run play rate in week 10 and they have the top ground game in the NFL according to our metrics. Houston’s rush defense is 29th in yards allowed before contact and I don’t expect the Texans to have much success slowing down New England’s rushing attack. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a receiving threat for the Patriots as only Davante Adams is being targeted on a higher percentage of his routes (33%) than Meyers (31%). However, it could be tough for Meyers this week if Bradley Roby is in shadow coverage. Roby is allowing just 0.77 yards per cover snap (8th) and has been employed in shadow coverage in all but two of his healthy games this season.

Deshaun Watson was held to under 200 passing yards for the first time all season last week against the Browns but we can chalk up his performance mostly to the weather.  Our numbers show the conditions in Cleveland were 8.1 points worse than average due to high winds and rain. Watson is still averaging 7.3 yards per pass play (5th) even after the down week and Houston’s passing offense has not been the problem this season. New England’s secondary should have CB Stephon Gilmore (worth 1.2 points) back after sitting out the last three games due to a knee injury.

Our model favors the Patriots by 1.2 points with a predicted total of 46.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Texans
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 30.4 28.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.6% 54.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 5.0%
  • Int Rate 4.2% 4.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.2% 21.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.6% 42.0%
  • NYPP 6.3 7.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.4 29.1
  • RB YPR 4.5 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 15.1% 13.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.4% 54.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.9% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 63.9 57.8
  • Early Down Succ 53.5% 58.1%
  • Succ Rate 51.2% 54.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.4% 39.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 30.6
  • Run Ratio 52.4% 50.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 26.2
  • Game Control -2.5 2.5
 
  • Points 21.0 23.4
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