New England Patriots @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Oct 2
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 275
Odds: Green Bay Packers -9.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Under (41) – New England at GREEN BAY

Lean – New England (+9.5)

· Patriots quarterback Mac Jones will likely require surgery for his high ankle sprain.  Backup QB Brian Hoyer will get the start on Sunday.

· Hoyer has two starts since the start of the 2018 season, one with Indianapolis and one with New England. Hoyer averaged only 4.6 yppp in those games with one touchdown and four interceptions.

· Hoyer made two massive mistakes in his most recent start for Bill Belichick. A sack let time expire at the end of the first half while in field goal range and Hoyer was strip-sacked at the Kansas City 10-yard line. He was ultimately pulled out of the game for Jarrett Stidham.

· Our metrics have Hoyer 3.6 points worse than Jones. Hoyer has not won a start since 2016 with Chicago and I expect Belichick to be ultra-conservative in this game. Belichick knows his only chance of winning is limiting the possessions for both offenses.

· WR Nelson Agholor leads New England with 179 yards, but he will be contained by Packers CB Rasul Douglas, who is allowing only 4.0 yards per target.

· Aaron Rodgers has some of the worst wide receivers in the league with no starters above replacement level. The Patriots have a 47% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Green Bay’s WRs are unlikely to take advantage of those matchups on the outside.

· Our model has the Packers by 6.9 with a predicted total of 36.7.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 40.5 or higher and 1-Star Under 40 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Packers
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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