Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (43) – DALLAS (-6.5) vs New England

· There is panic for the Cowboys’ offense after scoring 16 points against the Cardinals, but I believe the concerns to be unwarranted. Dallas averaged 5.5 yppl last week in Arizona, ranking 16th among week 3 offenses, and now the Cowboys will get back All-Pro RG Zack Martin and starting C Tyler Biadasz.

· Martin and Biadasz will be crucial in shutting down New England interior defender, Christian Barmore, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon has 13 pressures (10th) and he will battle with Dallas right tackle RT Terence Steele, who ranks 13th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· I think Dak Prescott will have enough time in the pocket and there’s even a chance LT Tyron Smith will come back on Sunday as well. Martin, Biadasz, and Smith have combined for 17 Pro Bowls.

· New England’s defense has a 46% blitz rate (4th-highest) but Prescott is one of the NFL’s best at diagnosing blitzes pre-snap. Prescott has a 42% first-down rate on his dropbacks versus the blitz this year.

· The Dallas defense has an 18% Dime Package rate as coordinator Dan Quinn prefers to give snaps to S Donovan Wilson over LB Damone Clark. The lighter personnel provide the Patriots the opportunity to run the ball, which is where they thrive.

· New England LT Trent Brown ranks 6th in true set pass blocking efficiency and he will limit Micah Parsons, whose 17 pressures rank 5th.

· Mac Jones will be more concerned about the other side as Patriots RT Calvin Anderson has blown a league-high 8 pass blocks and he will line up across from edge defender DeMarcus Lawrence, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Jones has directed the league’s 3rd-fastest offense in natural situations under new coordinator Bill O’Brien.

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 43.5 or less.