Game Analysis

CINCINNATI (-7.5) vs New England

• Cincinnati’s offense had a lost season in 2023 with Joe Burrow battling injuries the whole way and ultimately sitting out the last 7 games.
• Resetting to last year at this time, the Bengals offense rated 6th in market heading into the season. I think the personnel are better than it was last summer after adding RT Trent Brown, who conceded just a 5% pressure rate last year.
• Burrow will be without #2 receiver Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, who ended his holdout after signing a new deal will be on a snap count. I’ve adjusted 1.0 points in the model.
• The Patriots traded away top edge rusher Matthew Judon and top interior defender Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots.
• New England’s defense will be getting healthier in the secondary though after leading the NFL last year in adjusted games lost for defensive backs at 40.4. Rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez tore his shoulder labrum and missed 13 games. CB Marcus Jones also tore his labrum in the same game and missed 13 games as well. Cornerback Jonathan Jones was questionable for most of the year with an ankle injury.
• New Patriots head coach Jerrod Mayo has been on staff with Bill Belichick since 2019, but I doubt he’ll come close to the acumen of one of the best defensive minds of all-time.
• Jacoby Brissett will start the season under center for the Patriots. Brissett averaged 6.2 yppp in 2022 with New England’s new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt but it is unlikely he gets anywhere near that with this supporting cast.
• The Patriots’ offensive line rated worst in the NFL according to our metrics before losing starting guard Cole Strange to a torn patellar tendon in his left knee. The only addition to an offensive line that ranked 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency last season was tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, who got benched in Pittsburgh halfway through last year.
• New England’s receivers are also replacement-level. KJ Osborns’s 60 receptions in 2022 were the most any Patriots receiver on the roster has ever hauled in for a season.
• The Bengals let safeties Jessie Bates and Von Bell walk last season and the defense fell off a cliff. Bengals defense was 27th in EPA/play in 2023. They brought back Bell this offseason and signed S Geno Stone, who was 8th in PFF coverage grade last year.
• However, Cincinnati’s defense lost top interior defender DJ Reader so the defense might not get better despite upgrading the safeties. Reader graded 6th in run defense by PFF last season to go along with his 34 pressures.
• Our model favors the Bengals by 9.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.2 points, but New England applies to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle. I think 8.0 is the fair number with the model and angle combined. I used the Patriots in my spread pool.