New England Patriots @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 7
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Carolina Panthers +3.5, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *New England Team Total Under (22.5 -110)

Alternate play is 1-Star on Carolina (+3.5)

CAROLINA (+3.5) over New England

I expect Carolina’s defense to shut down New England. Panthers LB Shaq Thompson returned to the field last week after missing three games and allowed just 11 yards on 5 targets in coverage. Carolina’s other starting linebacker Jermaine Carter is conceding just 0.60 yards per cover snap (2nd). The screen game won’t be there for Mac Jones, which will force him to attack a recently upgraded secondary. The newest Panther is 2x All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who had a game-sealing interception last week despite only being out there for 14 cover snaps, and he should be on the field more often this week against his former team.

Patriots DT Christian Barmore ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency and Carolina’s interior offensive line is allowing 7.6 pressures per game.

Sam Darnold will get the start at quarterback for the Panthers and he’ll look to find star receiver DJ Moore, who is averaging 2.10 yards per route run (14th) and should get behind CB JC Jackson, who is surrendering 1.53 yards per cover snap (65th).

Our model favors the Patriots by just 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 41.5 points, but the best play is a 1-Star Best Bet on the New England Team Total Under 22 or higher. If you don’t have team totals, then play Carolina for 1-Star at +3.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Patriots
  • Panthers
NE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.88 37.38
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.2% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 4.6% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 3.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.8% 21.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.7% 38.8%
  • NYPP 6.74 6.42



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.88 26.75
  • RB YPR 3.86 4.16
  • Stuff Rate 25.1% 22.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.7% 45.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.3% 40.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.91 4.21




Game

  • All Snaps 63.75 64.13
  • Early Down Succ 52.4% 47.8%
  • Succ Rate 50.0% 45.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.2% 38.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.59 5.50
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.87 28.63
  • Run Ratio 40.4% 41.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.54 -1.54
 
  • Points 25.75 20.50
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