Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (49.5) – BUFFALO (-8) vs New England

• Drake Maye didn’t experience pressure on 67% of his dropbacks last week, and averaged 12.8 yppp with two touchdowns when kept clean against the Panthers, but I’m expecting a much different story on Sunday night.
• New England’s offensive line ranked 25th in talent heading into the season by our metrics but have not faced a defensive line with a 40% pressure rate yet. Buffalo’s defense has a 45% pressure rate (2nd) and an 8.0 sack rate (10th).
• The Bills pass rush will be getting even better this week with the likely return of iDL Ed Oliver, who had 39 pressures last season (19th).
• Buffalo’s defense should also be getting back starting LB Matt Milano, and they are already allowing -0.42 EPA/target to opposing running backs (4th). The Patriots are targeting running backs on 22.5% of passes (8th-most) but the Bills will shut down their screen game.
• Maye is averaging an outrageous 0.68 EPA/play on late downs this year. Jared Goff led the NFL last season at 0.48 EPA/play on late downs. New England’s offense won’t be as good going forwards as they regress in late down performance.
• Buffalo’s run rate over expectation is 6th-highest, but the ground game will be contained as the Patriots are allowing just 3.3 yards per rush (2nd).
• New England’s pass defense is much improved with All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez making his season debut last week. Backup CB Alex Austin was surrendering 12.2 yards per target while Gonzalez conceded only 5.9 yards per target last season.
• Our model favors the Bills by 8.4 points, with a predicted total of 44.2 points, and this game applies to a 176-109-5 Under situation.

Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49 points or more and 1-Star at Under 48.5 points (Strong Opinion at 48).