New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New England (+3.5) over BUFFALO

Both of the quarterbacks are looking for a bounce-back game after struggling last week. Josh Allen completed just two of his nine passes over 10 yards downfield against the Jets, the lowest completion rate on such throws of the week. Cam Newton, meanwhile, had three interceptions and less than 100 passing yards versus the 49ers.

There would be reason for optimism for Allen and Newton in normal conditions, but we probably won’t get that on Sunday. Allen is facing a Patriots pass defense ranked 25th in our numbers and Newton’s top target has a favorable matchup. Julian Edelman is out with a knee injury but his 8.1 yards per target is nothing special and backup receivers Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers have combined to average 8.6 YPT on 35 targets. Taron Johnson is surrendering 1.71 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 24th out of 26 qualifying nickelbacks, and the backup receivers should be able to take advantage of that matchup. High winds (up to 40 mph gusts) and possible rain make the prospects for passing the football much more difficult.

Newton could also face some pressure in this game as edge rushers Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison have combined for 48 pressures already while Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson have been solid in the interior. New England’s offense will need to rely on their 6th-rated ground game against a Bills rush defense ranked 26th.

Our model makes Buffalo a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.3 points after taking the weather into account. Our model shows value on New England, despite how poorly they’ve played lately and the Patriots enter this game on a 3-game losing streak for the first time since 2002. Prior to last week the Pats has won 11 games in a row after consecutive losses and Bill Belichick’s team is still an incredible 31-4 ATS in regular season games following a loss when not favored by more than 6 points, including 4-1 ATS without Tom Brady at quarterback.

Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Bills

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.0 31.7
Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 59.2%
Sack Rate 6.1% 5.3%
Int Rate 1.9% 4.5%
Deep Pass Rate 10.3% 17.4%
Big Pass Yards 27.4% 35.4%
NYPP 6.9 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 35.0 26.3
RB YPR 4.4 4.5
Stuff Rate 17.7% 14.1%
Succ Rush Plays 53.5% 56.2%
Big Rush Yards 48.6% 34.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.7

Game

All Snaps 67.0 58.0
Early Down Succ 57.7% 61.6%
Succ Rate 55.0% 57.9%
Big Yards Rate 39.6% 34.9%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 28.2
Run Ratio 52.8% 45.3%
Starting Field Pos 25.0 26.6
Game Control 3.7 -3.7

Points 29.0 22.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	21 – 11 W	5.7	61.9% / 51.6%	9.5% / 3.2%	0.0% / 10.0%	6.7 / 5.9	66.7% / 51.9%	11.9% / 18.5%	5.2 / 3.2	63 / 58	68.6% / 55.6%	65.1% / 51.7%	33.1% / 23.4%	5.7 / 4.6	1.6% / 0.0%	66.7% / 46.6%	29.4 / 20.8
2	@SEA	30 – 35 L	-0.4	57.8% / 70.0%	2.2% / 6.7%	2.3% / 3.6%	8.8 / 9.2	36.0% / 66.7%	28.0% / 10.0%	2.7 / 5.1	70 / 60	48.2% / 71.7%	50.0% / 68.3%	33.0% / 36.6%	6.6 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.7% / 50.0%	17.6 / 31.4
3	LV	36 – 20 W	5.7	40.0% / 55.9%	6.7% / 5.9%	3.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.3	57.9% / 50.0%	13.2% / 13.6%	6.6 / 5.7	68 / 56	56.4% / 57.4%	50.0% / 53.6%	52.7% / 44.8%	6.0 / 6.7	0.0% / 5.4%	55.9% / 39.3%	27.9 / 27.7

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	27 – 17 W	12.9	55.1% / 36.8%	6.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.2 / 5.3	40.6% / 60.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.1 / 3.5	81 / 53	48.4% / 47.5%	49.4% / 43.4%	27.5% / 47.2%	5.0 / 4.8	2.5% / 1.9%	39.5% / 28.3%	39.5 / 20.7
2	@MIA	31 – 28 W	4.2	61.1% / 48.0%	2.8% / 6.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.5 / 6.2	39.1% / 63.6%	17.4% / 18.2%	4.8 / 4.5	59 / 72	55.3% / 56.9%	52.5% / 52.8%	70.0% / 29.5%	8.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	39.0% / 30.6%	20.4 / 26.9
3	LA	35 – 32 W	8.9	56.8% / 58.8%	10.8% / 5.9%	3.0% / 3.1%	7.4 / 9.1	61.9% / 68.8%	14.3% / 18.8%	4.8 / 5.2	58 / 66	59.6% / 65.5%	58.6% / 63.6%	57.1% / 48.3%	6.5 / 7.2	1.7% / 1.5%	36.2% / 48.5%	32.9 / 27.0

New England Patriots @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis