Game Analysis
Tom Brady has been on his seemingly annual NFL revenge tour, averaging a punisher like 9.4 NYPP through 3 games. However, the Pats defense has continued to show weakness and Rex Ryan has the Bills playing a successful style of smash mouth football, ranking #1 in adjusted rushing offense, while running the ball 49% of the time. Our advanced stats model tells us to lay off the side and total. A small sample Bill Belichick trend is that New England is 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in same-season revenge against a division opponent going back to 2000 (Belichick’s first season).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
40.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
48.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.2%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.9%
31.4%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.1
24.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
24.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.4%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.8%
29.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
64.9
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.7%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
32.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.1
-
Run Ratio
49.5%
37.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
23.8
-
Game Control
7.0
-7.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.3
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.7%
44.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
1.0%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.1%
24.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.3%
46.1%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
30.3
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.4%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
60.0%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
59.6
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
48.7%
49.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.0%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
29.4
-
Run Ratio
48.6%
46.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
25.8
-
Game Control
4.4
-4.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
23 – 21 W |
5.0 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
5.7% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.3 |
31.3% /
57.9% |
34.4% /
15.8% |
3.3 /
4.8 |
67 /
59 |
36.7% /
53.2% |
41.8% /
52.5% |
45.9% /
38.1% |
5.4 /
5.8 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
32.2% |
24.7 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
MIA |
31 – 24 W |
16.3 |
55.3% /
65.9% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
8.0 /
8.8 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
20.5% /
18.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
77 /
60 |
47.5% /
65.3% |
48.1% /
61.7% |
38.8% /
41.2% |
6.1 /
7.7 |
1.3% /
3.3% |
50.6% /
26.7% |
31.4 /
22.7 |
| 3 |
HOU |
27 – 0 W |
13.1 |
40.0% /
48.8% |
5.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
48.8% /
40.7% |
22.0% /
22.2% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
61 /
70 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
45.7% |
51.1% /
13.4% |
4.7 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
67.2% /
38.6% |
40.5 /
15.6 |
| 4 |
BUF |
0 – 16 L |
-11.1 |
43.3% /
43.9% |
10.0% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
40.9% /
56.3% |
27.3% /
21.9% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
52 /
73 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
42.3% /
49.3% |
34.3% /
22.8% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
42.3% /
43.8% |
22.9 /
23.3 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
33 – 13 W |
15.1 |
47.6% /
45.9% |
2.4% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
9.6 /
6.4 |
42.1% /
13.0% |
15.8% /
39.1% |
2.6 /
1.2 |
80 /
60 |
46.6% /
34.1% |
45.0% /
33.3% |
54.3% /
28.5% |
6.3 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
38.3% |
30.6 /
20.7 |
| 6 |
CIN |
35 – 17 W |
4.4 |
60.5% /
48.5% |
7.9% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
7.2 |
39.1% /
53.1% |
26.1% /
28.1% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
54.0% /
52.9% |
52.5% /
50.8% |
51.5% /
48.2% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
49.2% |
28.0 /
22.9 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
27 – 16 W |
6.2 |
57.7% /
39.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.5 /
6.1 |
53.3% /
40.9% |
16.7% /
27.3% |
4.7 /
4.3 |
56 /
68 |
57.1% /
42.0% |
55.4% /
39.7% |
33.1% /
35.7% |
6.5 /
5.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
32.4% |
29.6 /
32.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
7 – 13 L |
-3.5 |
37.5% /
44.7% |
8.3% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
45.8% /
35.5% |
41.7% /
22.6% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
48 /
69 |
45.5% /
45.8% |
41.7% /
40.6% |
38.8% /
47.9% |
3.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
44.9% |
31.9 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
NYJ |
31 – 37 L |
-2.8 |
53.3% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
10.6 |
47.4% /
45.9% |
42.1% /
16.2% |
4.5 /
3.4 |
49 /
72 |
56.8% /
50.9% |
51.0% /
51.4% |
54.5% /
54.5% |
8.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.8% /
51.4% |
26.1 /
24.6 |
| 3 |
ARI |
34 – 18 W |
12.1 |
27.6% /
40.0% |
13.8% /
9.1% |
4.0% /
8.0% |
3.0 /
4.7 |
51.4% /
40.9% |
25.7% /
31.8% |
6.0 /
4.0 |
64 /
77 |
47.8% /
42.6% |
40.6% /
40.3% |
80.9% /
27.0% |
4.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
54.7% /
28.6% |
33.8 /
32.3 |
| 4 |
@NE |
16 – 0 W |
11.1 |
43.9% /
43.3% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
56.3% /
40.9% |
21.9% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
4.1 |
73 /
52 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
49.3% /
42.3% |
22.8% /
34.3% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
43.8% /
42.3% |
23.3 /
22.9 |
| 5 |
@LA |
30 – 19 W |
4.3 |
36.0% /
42.9% |
8.0% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.5 /
6.9 |
46.4% /
55.2% |
28.6% /
13.8% |
6.9 /
3.5 |
53 /
64 |
45.0% /
54.0% |
41.5% /
48.4% |
56.5% /
54.8% |
5.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
52.8% /
45.3% |
34.0 /
21.2 |
| 6 |
SF |
45 – 16 W |
6.8 |
41.9% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.2 |
62.2% /
44.8% |
13.3% /
27.6% |
7.0 /
4.6 |
76 /
61 |
54.1% /
50.0% |
53.9% /
41.0% |
57.7% /
42.9% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
2.6% /
1.6% |
59.2% /
47.5% |
30.2 /
30.7 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
25 – 28 L |
2.6 |
37.5% /
42.3% |
12.5% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
7.6 |
36.4% /
47.6% |
22.7% /
21.4% |
3.0 /
6.1 |
54 /
68 |
41.5% /
48.1% |
37.0% /
45.6% |
45.7% /
63.7% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
61.8% |
31.7 /
25.6 |
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Buffalo Bills