Game Analysis

Lean – New England (-1.5) over ARIZONA

· New England’s defense is allowing -0.107 EPA/rush (8th) but quarterbacks scrambling can be a problem for Bill Belichick’s man coverage scheme. The Patriots have gone against three offenses with a mobile quarterback in 2022. New England’s defense surrendered 37 points to the Ravens, 33 points to the Bears and 24 points to the Bills last week.

· Kyler Murray will need to use his legs on Monday night as the Cardinals once again will be without left tackle DJ Humphries, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency. Patriots edge defender Matthew Judon ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and edge defender Josh Uche had 7 pressures last week.

· Arizona WR Marquise Brown only averaged 5.8 yards per target in his first start alongside DeAndre Hopkins last week, but Brown will be needed in this game. Hopkins is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (14th) and I imagine Belichick will double the top receiver leaving Brown alone on the other side.

· Mac Jones was clearly frustrated by the lack of downfield passing play calls on Thursday night versus the Bills, but the Rhamondre Stevenson show might be New England’s best approach this week. Stevenson is averaging 1.50 yards per route run (5th) and the Cardinals are surrendering 6.5 yards per target to running backs (29th). Furthermore, Arizona is the 31st-rated rush defense by our numbers.

· Cardinals’ interior defenders JJ Watt and Zach Allen have combined for 75 pressures on the inside this season. Watt will be shut down by Patriots RG Michael Onwenu, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. Allen will fare better versus New England LG Cole Strange, who has surrendered 4 sacks 4th-most among guards.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, but Arizona applies to a 2-31 ATS Monday night situation that plays against bad teams at home and the Patriots apply to a 54-15 ATS road favorite with extra rest situation (they last played last Thursday). New England has also been historically good after consecutive bad games, as the Patriots are 29-9-1 ATS after consecutive spread losses, including 15-0 ATS if facing a team off a loss (Belichick has been good in general vs struggling teams over the years).