Game Analysis

TENNESSEE (+6) vs Minnesota

• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was the intended receiver on all 3 of Sam Darnold’s interceptions last week in Jacksonville and all three were against split-safety coverage. Minnesota’s offense could struggle again on Sunday as the Titans’ defense has a 62% two-high safety rate (7th-highest). Jefferson has +29.1 EPA when targeted versus single-high but -7.8 EPA when targeted against two-high safeties.
• Darnold’s yppp versus Cover 4 is 83% of his yppp against other coverages and Tennessee’s defense has the 3rd-highest Cover 4 rate.
• Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson saw his target share rise from 12% in week 9 to 24% last game as he integrates himself into the offense after missing the first half of the season.
• Minnesota had a 45% heavy personnel rate against the Jaguars but taking WRs off the field might not be the correct strategy this week as the Titans’ defense 3rd in the NFL in terms of relative yppp allowed to heavy personnel.
• Vikings RG Ed Ingram has surrendered 24 pressures (5th-most) and he will struggle across from interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranks 20th in pass-rushing efficiency after 16 pressures in the last month (3rd).
• Tennessee’s offense has the 8th-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation but the ground game will be shut down as Minnesota’s defense is conceding a 32% rush success rate (2nd).
• Titans WR Calvin Ridley had a 21% target share in games with DeAndre Hopkins and has a 36% target share since Hopkins was traded. Will Levis will look to feature Ridley versus the Vikings defense that leads the NFL with a 23% Cover 4 rate. Tennessee’s offense is averaging 17% more yppp versus Cover 4 than other coverages (6th).
• Minnesota’s defense has an 8.2% sack rate (10th) and the scheme will wreak havoc on a Titans offensive line rated 30th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Tennessee’s offense yppp against Cover 2 is a league-low 74% of the yppp versus other coverages and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores already calls Cover 2 at the 3rd-highest rate and it is likely to increase after this game.
• Tennessee has lost to the spread in 5 consecutive games, and they are 1-8 ATS for the season. Nobody wants to bet the Titans. That’s exactly when you should. In the second half of the season (game 9+) teams with a pointspread win percentage of less than 0.200 are 66-30-1 ATS as long as they’re not favored by 3 points or more (59-22-2 ATS if the opponent does not have revenge for a same-season or previous season loss).
• The Titans also apply to a 59-10 ATS situation that plays on underdogs that have lost 5 or more games in a row to the number.
• Our model makes Minnesota an 8.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 38.1 points, but I used Tennessee in my spread pool based on the contrary situations that are in their favor.