Minnesota Vikings @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Dec 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 163
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Tampa Bay Team Total Over (30)

Alternate play is Strong Opinion on TAMPA BAY (-7) over Minnesota

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins averaged 5.9 yards per pass play last week and completed just four of his 11 passing attempts under pressure for 15 yards. Tampa Bay’s defensive front is much stronger than Jacksonville’s pass rush without top pass rusher Josh Allen and I expect Cousins to face plenty of heat this Sunday. Interior defender William Gholston has 40 pressures (8th) and he will dominate across from LG Dakota Dozier, who ranks 53rd out of 55 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency. Jamel Dean is allowing just 0.78 yards per cover snap (8th) and he should return from his concussion this week to limit Justin Jefferson (2.87 yards per route run).

Minnesota’s defense ranks 31st in pressure rate this season, as trading edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, combined with a season ending injury to DE Danielle Hunter, has disabled the Vikings’ pass rush. Tom Brady has struggled under pressure this season but the GOAT should have time in the pocket to find his receivers downfield in this game – particularly Mike Evans, who will exploit rookie CB Cameron Dantzler. Dantzer had a solid game last week, but has been beaten for an explosive play in almost every game of his career leading up to week 13.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 9.9 points, with a predicted total of 53.2 points, and Tom Brady is now 48-22 ATS in games following a loss in his career, including 39-10 ATS when not favored by 8 points or more (4-0 ATS this season after a loss with Tampa Bay). The concern is that Minnesota’s offense is so much better when they’re not running the ball on early downs, which would be the case if they are behind by two scores in the 4th quarter. That would give the Vikings a decent chance at a backdoor cover. So, the Tampa team total over is the play I’m most comfortable with.  Strong Opinion on Tampa Bay Team Total Over 30 (at 30 or less). The alternate play would be a Strong Opinion on Tampa Bay -7 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vikings
  • Buccaneers
MIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.3 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 49.5%
  • Sack Rate 6.6% 4.5%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.0% 18.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.3% 42.6%
  • NYPP 7.9 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.0 28.2
  • RB YPR 4.7 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 17.7% 16.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.7% 56.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.6% 27.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 62.3 66.3
  • Early Down Succ 53.5% 56.6%
  • Succ Rate 51.2% 52.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.9% 38.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 27.9
  • Run Ratio 48.2% 42.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.2 33.4
  • Game Control -0.6 0.6
 
  • Points 26.6 27.4
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