Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs Minnesota

· I really like this matchup for Kirk Cousins’ receiving weapons on Thursday night as long as Minnesota’s offensive line can keep their quarterback upright. The Eagles surrendered a league-high 92 yards to TEs in week 1 after losing starting linebacker TJ Edwards and safety CJ Gardner-Johnson in the offseason. The Vikings’ tight ends had 12 targets last week which led the NFL.

· Philadelphia CB James Bradberry is out for week 2 and he ranked 7th in coverage grade by PFF in 2022. Bradberry’s backup Josh Jobe has only earned 23 snaps since entering the league prior to last season. Eagles CB Darius Slay lines up almost exclusively on the left side of the defense, meaning Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell will be able to put Justin Jefferson in a mismatch whenever he wants against Jobe or nickelback Avonte Maddox.

· Eagles rookie DT Jalen Carter had 8 pressures against New England’s backup guards, the most of any interior defender in the NFL. Carter will line up across from another backup this week with Vikings starting center Garrett Bradbury sidelined. Backup C Austin Schlottmann was truly horrible in 2022 surrendering a 9% pressure rate.

· Minnesota RT Brian O’Neill did not allow a single pressure last week and he will limit edge defender Haason Reddick, who finished 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency in 2022.

· Vikings’ new defensive coordinator Brian Flores was his same aggressive self, utilizing a league-high 47% blitz rate in week 1. However, Flores was mostly known for his man coverage coming into the season, but he called week 1’s 7th-highest zone rate against the Buccaneers. I think this is the correct adjustment as Minnesota’s cornerbacks don’t have the speed or talent for man defense.

· I expect Jalen Hurts to look for a heavy dose of WR DeVonta Smith, who averaged 0.44 EPA/target last season (7th). Smith should get plenty of snaps across from Vikings CB Akayleb Evans, who has earned only 224 snaps in his career mostly in relief as a backup last year.

· Minnesota’s best pass rusher Danielle Hunter had a sack in week 1, but he will likely be shut down by All-Pro RT Lane Johnson.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 7.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.3 points.