Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (51.5) – PHILADELPHIA vs Minnesota

Strong Opinion – PHILADELPHIA (-2)

· This total was 47.5 before the season started and I do not think 4 points of movement is justified after the games last week. 

· The Philadelphia game was certainly higher scoring than it could’ve been. The Eagles and Lions combined to convert 22 of 35 on 3rd/4th down. The game also featured a defensive touchdown. Furthermore, the teams scored eight TDs from nine Redzone trips when we would usually expect about five touchdowns from that number of opportunities.

· Minnesota soundly beat Green Bay but protection for Kirk Cousins could prove to be a real weakness for this team. The Vikings rank 31st in pass blocking efficiency.

· Minnesota center Garrett Bradbury allowed 4 pressures last week which was twice as many as all but one other starting center in week 1. Bradbury will struggle across from Eagles interior defender Javon Hargrave, who ranked 3rd in pass rushing efficiency last season.

· Kevin O’Connell has brought the condensed formations to the Vikings that he used with Sean McVay with the Rams last year. WR Justin Jefferson lined up inside the numbers on 27/34 (79%) receiving snaps last Sunday compared to 62% during the previous two seasons.

· I believe the Eagles have the personnel to limit Jefferson on the inside unlike the Lions. Avonte Maddox is a very capable nickelback and he conceded just 0.90 yards per cover snap in the slot last season (5th). We could also see some Darius Slay (Pro Bowl in 2021) on Jefferson. Slay faced a game-high 9 targets versus Detroit but allowed only three receptions for 55 yards.

· This total is too high considering one of these offenses is likely to call more runs than passes on Monday night. For the first seven weeks of last year, Nick Sirianni’s Eagles passed on early downs at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. However, no team ran the ball more than Philadelphia on early downs in the second half of the season and none of their games had a total close above 49.

· Jalen Hurts does have wide receiver AJ Brown now and the pair connected for 155 yards in week 1, but Minnesota’s defense should be able to take away some of the routes Brown likes to run in the intermediate areas of the field. Vikings’ Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith allowed only 26 yards on five targets last week.

· Week 2 teams off a win of more than 10 points as an underdog that covered the spread by more than 15 points are just 6-33 ATS against a team that didn’t cover the spread in week 1, including 0-13 ATS since 2010 and 1-17 ATS for road teams. The Vikings also apply to a 22-75-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last weeks’ division home underdog upset win over the Packers. There are some other strong situations favoring Philly too and Eagles get my highest technical analysis rating (a 5) and 5 Tech ratings are 58% plays over many years in all sports (59-40-1 ATS in the NFL).

· Our model favors Philly by a point, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, but the situation favors Strongly favors the Eagles and there is value on the Under.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 51 or more (Strong Opinion at 50.5) and Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 or less.