Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (45.5) – PHILADELPHIA (-3/-3.5) vs Minnesota

The Vikings offensive line has been a disaster this season and now have an extremely difficult challenge against Philadelphia’s defensive front. Minnesota ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency and it likely won’t improve against an Eagles team that led the NFL in pressures last season. Furthermore, the Vikings offense ranks last in rushing according to our numbers and they will likely struggle to find lanes versus Philadelphia’s 4th-ranked run defense. Minnesota’s offense grades just 20th through the first four games of the Kirk Cousins era and I expect the Eagles defense to expose them in the trenches on Sunday.

Carson Wentz improved in his second start despite the loss to Tennessee last week and he looks like he’s nearly back to 100% health. The Eagles are targeting tight ends on 41% of their passes, by far the most in the league, and the jury is still out on whether that will be a good strategy versus a Vikings defense surrendering 9.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (29th), but ranked first in the same category with the same personnel last year. Minnesota will likely be without Pro Bowl edge rusher Everson Griffin again, whose 13 sacks in 2017 tied for 4th-highest, and he’s worth nearly a point to the Vikings’ defense.

The Eagles have had tough fumble luck as they are the only team to lose 5 fumbles and they’ve only recovered 1. Fumble differential typically regresses towards zero going forward and the Eagles are certainly better than their 2-2 record with Wentz back behind center. Our model has the Eagles favored by 5.4 in this game but I’m going to pass due to a very good 110-39-5 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that applies to Minnesota in this game. I will lean with the over, however, as our model shows significant value on the over based on this year’s metrics (49.7 points projected). Normally, that sort of differential from the line would lead to a Best Bet but in this case, I believe that both defensive units should be better than they’ve been so far this season, which is why I just lean with the over.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Eagles

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 50.5 35.3
Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 46.9%
Sack Rate 6.5% 8.0%
Int Rate 1.0% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 28.9% 55.9%
NYPP 6.5 7.9

Rush

Rush Plays 18.3 27.0
RB YPR 3.0 3.9
Stuff Rate 28.2% 23.7%
Succ Rush Plays 34.3% 49.4%
Big Rush Yards 34.5% 28.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.2 4.0

Game

All Snaps 68.8 62.3
Early Down Succ 47.6% 52.0%
Succ Rate 46.9% 48.0%
Big Yards Rate 27.9% 47.5%
Yards Per Play 5.7 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 31.5
Run Ratio 26.2% 43.4%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 30.0
Game Control -6.2 6.2

Points 22.5 27.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9
3	BUF	6 – 27 L	-22.0	47.5% / 40.0%	6.8% / 12.0%	1.8% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	16.7% / 42.1%	50.0% / 23.7%	2.3 / 3.4	65 / 63	48.0% / 42.9%	44.6% / 41.3%	3.8% / 42.1%	4.5 / 4.6	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2% / 60.3%	17.7 / 40.2
4	@LA	31 – 38 L	-3.9	51.9% / 60.0%	7.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 13.0	35.3% / 57.1%	35.3% / 14.3%	3.2 / 4.8	71 / 56	45.3% / 68.1%	47.9% / 58.9%	38.8% / 55.7%	6.3 / 9.9	1.4% / 0.0%	23.9% / 37.5%	27.2 / 26.6

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2
3	IND	20 – 16 W	0.6	47.6% / 39.5%	11.9% / 4.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.3	60.0% / 38.5%	28.6% / 23.1%	4.3 / 5.2	77 / 56	55.6% / 45.2%	53.2% / 39.3%	34.0% / 46.9%	4.9 / 3.7	1.3% / 0.0%	45.5% / 23.2%	21.6 / 36.1
4	@TEN	23 – 26 L	2.6	46.3% / 47.8%	7.4% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.8 / 7.1	36.4% / 39.1%	13.6% / 34.8%	5.3 / 3.1	76 / 69	45.9% / 47.9%	43.4% / 44.9%	41.0% / 38.9%	5.7 / 5.8	1.3% / 0.0%	28.9% / 33.3%	28.0 / 24.4

Minnesota Vikings @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Oct 7

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis