Game Analysis
Lean – NY JETS (+3.5) over Minnesota
Vikings’ WR Adam Thielen will look to continue his incredible streak of 100-yard games to start the season with a favorable matchup in New York this Sunday. An injury to Trumaine Johnson has forced Buster Skrine outside and Parry Nickerson is playing nickelback. Nickerson has surrendered 2.35 yards per slot cover snap the least two weeks, most in the NFL, and Thielen will likely expose the Jets even if Johnson plays, as Skrine is allowing 1.92 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 36th out of 40 qualifying nickelbacks.
The 2017 and 2018 Vikings are the only two defenses in the last two season to allow less than 30% conversions on third down as Mike Zimmer saves his best plays to get opponents off the field. The Vikings likely won’t be able to continue holding opponents to 25% on 3rd-downs moving forward, but the year-to-year consistency makes it more believable Minnesota won’t regress to their early-down performance as we would see with most teams. The Vikings have a hard time defending receivers out of the backfield as the allow 9.3 yards per target to opposing running backs. However, the Jets don’t have the personnel to take advantage of Minnesota’s weakness as they target running backs on just 16% of passes (26th).
I expect Adam Thielen’s streak to continue, but it could be difficult with heavy winds expected in East Rutherford on Sunday. Despite some matchups that appear to favor Minnesota our model favors the Vikings by just 2 points against a Jets team that was won straight up the last two weeks as underdogs on this field.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
45.0
33.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.5%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
9.2%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.1%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.2%
55.1%
-
NYPP
6.9
8.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
24.2
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.2%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.0%
26.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
57.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
53.4%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
50.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.9%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
32.0
-
Run Ratio
32.8%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
29.4
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.8
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
50.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
4.9%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
13.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.5%
33.6%
-
NYPP
8.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
28.6%
28.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.4%
46.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.5%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
43.6%
51.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
49.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.6%
38.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
26.8
-
Run Ratio
50.7%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.2
29.4
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
24 – 16 W |
7.6 |
43.6% /
38.9% |
7.7% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
5.8 /
6.6 |
40.6% /
44.0% |
21.9% /
32.0% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
71 /
61 |
43.4% /
41.7% |
42.3% /
41.0% |
24.5% /
60.9% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
45.1% /
41.0% |
33.3 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
@GB |
29 – 29 T |
-6.3 |
56.0% /
48.9% |
4.0% /
8.9% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.6 |
44.4% /
54.2% |
5.6% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
68 /
69 |
53.7% /
55.4% |
52.9% /
50.7% |
44.4% /
31.3% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.5% /
34.8% |
26.5 /
29.9 |
| 3 |
BUF |
6 – 27 L |
-22.0 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
6.8% /
12.0% |
1.8% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.6 |
16.7% /
42.1% |
50.0% /
23.7% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
65 /
63 |
48.0% /
42.9% |
44.6% /
41.3% |
3.8% /
42.1% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2% /
60.3% |
17.7 /
40.2 |
| 4 |
@LA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.9 |
51.9% /
60.0% |
7.4% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
13.0 |
35.3% /
57.1% |
35.3% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
71 /
56 |
45.3% /
68.1% |
47.9% /
58.9% |
38.8% /
55.7% |
6.3 /
9.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
37.5% |
27.2 /
26.6 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
23 – 21 W |
7.0 |
74.2% /
80.8% |
3.2% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
10.9 |
44.0% /
58.8% |
20.0% /
11.8% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
56 /
43 |
62.5% /
63.6% |
60.7% /
72.1% |
48.8% /
51.9% |
6.7 /
8.5 |
1.8% /
4.7% |
44.6% /
39.5% |
27.0 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
ARI |
27 – 17 W |
8.0 |
54.1% /
37.1% |
10.8% /
11.4% |
3.0% /
3.2% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
42.4% /
40.0% |
18.2% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
3.1 |
70 /
55 |
54.7% /
48.8% |
48.6% /
38.2% |
31.3% /
41.3% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
47.1% /
36.4% |
30.9 /
25.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
New York Jets