Game Analysis

Lean – Over 41 – Minnesota (-1.5) vs NY GIANTS

• It was a disaster year for the Giants in 2023 after losing LT Andrew Thomas in week 1. The offensive line went on to surrender 85 sacks (2nd-most all-time), and Daniel Jones tore his ACL in week 9.
• The offensive line was so bad last season, I don’t think we can take much away from the results so let’s transport ourselves back to the playoff game between these teams in January of 2023 when the market had the Giants offense rated 22nd. Market priors had New York’s offense rated league-average heading into the season last August but that was with RB Saquan Barkley, who is now in Philly.
• The Giants stabilized the offensive line with Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemanor, who’s coming over from the Raiders with his offensive line coach. Runyan finished 2023 ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency among guards.
• I see New York’s offense back out of the cellar in that 25th-ish range due to respect for head coach Brian Daboll and they’re likely going to let Daniel Jones loose with his legs since his career is on the line. Jones is averaging 32 rushing yards per game during his career, and we could see that spike close to 50 this season with everyone fighting for their jobs.
• Based on the talent they had coming into the year, Minnesota’s defense surprisingly finished in the top half of the NFL last season. Coordinator Brian Flores rated 2nd in our scheme uniqueness indicator as the Vikings led the NFL in blitz rate and Drop 8 rate.
• New York’s defense lost coordinator Wink Martindale and safety Xavier McKinney, who conceded a passer rating of just 52.1 into his coverage last season. They bring in Shane Bowen to call the plays and edge rusher Brian Burns, who is averaging 49.2 pressures per season in his career.
• New York’s secondary is clearly bottom of the barrel in the NFL in terms of talent. I expect Bowen to protect them with a ton of soft quarters coverage.
• Minnesota’s offense ended last year rated 21st in the market with Nick Mullens starting because the supporting cast and play calling is very good, and I expect Sam Darnold to be better than Mullens. Darnold had a rough start to his career with Adam Gase in New York, but he averaged a passable 5.7 yppp in 17 starts with the Panthers without the elite play calling and supporting cast he’ll have in Minnesota.
• However, the Vikings will not have tight end TJ Hockenson to start the season. Hockenson averaged 1.89 yards per route run (4th) but tore his ACL and MCL in his right knee late last year. Hockenson is worth 0.7 points to Minnesota’s offense.
• Our model favors the Vikings by 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.1 points.