Minnesota Vikings @

New Orleans Saints

Fri, Dec 25
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: New Orleans Saints -6.5, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs Minnesota

Drew Brees completed less than half his passes for the first time in a regular season game in seven years (min 25 pass attempts) during his return last week from a ribs injury. All-Pro WR Michael Thomas will miss another game with an ankle issue, leaving Brees limited receiving options as we head into the home stretch.  The Vikings rush defense ranks 2nd in the league and they are conceding just 4.8 yards per target to opposing running backs – so Alvin Kamara should be bottled up on Friday unless LB Eric Kendricks ends up missing this game. Kendricks status is worth monitoring as he is allowing just 0.71 yards per cover snap (10th) and plays a role in Minnesota’s defense defending receivers out of the backfield. Kendricks has been held out of the last three games with a calf injury but could return this week.

New Orleans’ defense leads the league with a 45% pressure rate over the past five weeks but edge defender Trey Hendrickson (3rd in pass rushing efficiency) is banged-up with a shoulder injury – although it looks like Hendrickson will be on the field in some capacity this week. Interior defender David Onyemata ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency and he should dominate in this matchup. Vikings LG Dakota Dozier has allowed the most pressures of any guard in the league (40) and C Garrett Bradbury ranks 26th out of 31 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency. Saints starting safety Marcus Williams could miss this game with a low-ankle sprain and he is worth 0.6 points by our metrics. Justin Jefferson’s 14 deep pass receptions rank 2nd in the NFL and he could find some space in the New Orleans secondary if Williams is unable to play.

Our model favors the Saints by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.1 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vikings
  • Saints


  • Pass Plays 33.5 35.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.6% 50.7%
  • Sack Rate 7.2% 4.2%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.7% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.3% 42.9%
  • NYPP 7.5 7.1


  • Rush Plays 30.1 29.0
  • RB YPR 4.7 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 17.1% 15.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.8% 55.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.3% 29.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.4


  • All Snaps 63.6 64.9
  • Early Down Succ 54.8% 57.1%
  • Succ Rate 51.9% 52.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.0% 39.5%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 27.9
  • Run Ratio 47.5% 44.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.1 33.5
  • Game Control -1.3 1.3
  • Points 25.7 27.7
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