Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **LA RAMS (+3 EV) over Minnesota

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (47)

• We are in line with the market on the Vikings and the Rams defense, but for this side and total to make sense, you’d have to believe the Rams are rated as a below-average offense, which is not the case with WR Cooper Kupp returning to the field in some capacity.
• Additionally, Los Angeles guard Joe Noteboom is likely to suit up on Thursday night, becoming an instant upgrade over backup Logan Bruss, who is allowing a 9.3% pressure rate.
• The Rams have a 49% success rate (5th) despite missing two games from the starting left tackle Alaric Jackson, one game from starting right tackle Rob Havenstein, four games from starting left guard Jonah Jackson, five games from starting center Steve Avila, five games from WR Puka Nacua, and four games from Kupp. Alaric Jackson, Havenstein, and Kupp will be on the field this week. Noteboom is not much of a downgrade from Jonah Jackson like third-stringer Bruss has been. There is no world where Los Angeles is a below-average offense unless Kupp (practice full participant) gets like 10 snaps.
• Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL with a 27% Cover 4 rate, but they will struggle in those looks as Matthew Stafford has destroyed Cover 4 – averaging 40% more yppp compared to other coverages (2nd).
• Sam Darnold has an added option in the passing game. Minnesota tight end TJ Hockenson is likely making his first start of the year, and he averaged 1.89 yards per route run last season (4th).
• Rams’ interior defender Braden Fiske could be sidelined but interior defender Kobie Turner ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc on the inside across from RG Ed Ingram, who has surrendered 18 pressures (4th-most).
• Our model favors the Rams by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 50.4 points.

The Rams are a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 odds or better and 1-Star at +2.5 points. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 48 points or less.