Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – LA Rams (+2.5) over Minnesota (at Glendale AZ)

• Sam Darnold had a season-low 24% success rate last week and I expect him to struggle again in this game as Minnesota’s offense starts to show its cracks.
• The way to stop the Vikings is to get them in obvious passing downs where Darnold is taking a 13% sack rate. Only Deshaun Watson and Will Levis had a higher sack rate in obvious pass situations this season.
• I expect Los Angeles to get Minnesota’s offense in 3rd & long because the Rams have a schematic advantage with a 58% middle-field open coverage rate (8th-highest). Darnold is averaging a league-low 80% yppp against middle-field open compared to middle-field closed coverages.
• Once in 3rd and long, the Rams rookie defensive lineman can pin their ears back in favorable matchups and bring Darnold to the ground. Vikings LT Cam Robinson ranks 56th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifiers and he will struggle lined up across from edge rusher Jared Verse, whose 76 pressures rank 4th.
• Los Angeles’ rookie interior defender Braden Fiske ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc against LG Blake Brandel, who has surrendered 41 pressures (3rd-most).
• Minnesota’s defense calls even more middle-field open coverages than the Rams. The Vikings have a league-high 69% two-high safety rate but Matthew Stafford’s 0.12 EPA/play jumps to 0.19 EPA/play versus two-high.
• Furthermore, the Rams average 15% more yards per attempt against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush (4th) and Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL with a 54% blitz rate.
• It’s no surprise Stafford averaged 8.2 yppp against the Vikings in the regular season. We had a Best Bet on the Rams and the Over in that game (Rams won 30-20).
• Los Angeles’ WR Puka Nacua has a 61% success rate (6th) and has been targeted on a league-high 45% of his routes when the defense blitzes.
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp also has a favorable matchup as he averages 2.14 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and Minnesota nickelback Byron Murphy is surrendering 1.81 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd-worst).
• Los Angeles has had 12 offensive linemen play more than 50 snaps this year but the Rams conceded only 10 sacks in ten games with both starting tackles on the field compared to 13 sacks in the other seven games. Los Angeles should have both LT Alaric Jackson and RT Rob Havenstein suiting up on Monday night.
• Sam Darnold is making his first career playoff start and such quarterbacks are just 7-19-1 ATS and 12-15 straight up if the opposing quarterback has playoff starting experience.
• Our model favors the Rams by 0.4 points and the matchups significantly favor the LA. The new predicted total is down to 46.3 points (the new venue is a dome but the game is on natural grass and not turf) but this game does apply to a 90-67-1 playoff Over situation so I wouldn’t bet the under.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at 2.5 or more and a Strong Opinion at +2.