Minnesota Vikings @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Sep 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -3, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Minnesota (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS

Philip Rivers played better than he is getting credit for in his Colts debut, averaging 7.9 yards per pass play with a 7.7% completion percentage above expectation (6th). Rivers will face another soft secondary this week after the Vikings got shredded for 8.3 yppp last week. Minnesota’s defense is really going to struggle this season without Danielle Hunter (IR) and Everson Griffen (let go). The two edge rushers combined for 42.5 sacks over the last two seasons. The Vikings only pressured Aaron Rodgers on 16% of his dropbacks in week 1 (3rd-worst). Indianapolis probably has the league’s best offensive line. Rivers should have all day to attack this defense.

Kirk Cousins somehow only threw 25 passes in Week 1 despite trailing for most of the game and ultimately losing to the Packers 43-34. Former Vikings’ OC Kevin Stefanski is no longer around to keep Mike Zimmer from being overly conservative and Minnesota’s offense is going to run like crazy this year, which is not an optimal strategy in the modern NFL.

When Cousins does drop back to pass, he likely won’t have that much time. Center Pat Elflein conceded 5 pressures including a sack last week and stands no chance of blocking DeForest Buckner (11th in pass rush efficiency last year).

Our model favors the Colts by just 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 48.8 points, but I think Indianapolis has a clear matchup advantage. However, Minnesota applies to a 91-35-2 ATS early season bounce-back situation and a 30-5 ATS game 2 situation. So, I’ll lean with the Vikings at +3 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vikings
  • Colts
MIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 28.0 35.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.7% 54.3%
  • Sack Rate 8.9% 3.7%
  • Int Rate 7.8% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 33.4% 21.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 51.4% 52.4%
  • NYPP 6.2 7.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.0 36.0
  • RB YPR 5.0 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 10.1% 11.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.8% 57.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.4% 25.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.3 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 48.0 71.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.7% 60.3%
  • Succ Rate 47.5% 55.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.8% 41.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.0 33.6
  • Run Ratio 41.6% 50.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 21.7 39.1
  • Game Control -7.9 7.9
 
  • Points 22.5 35.5
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