Minnesota Vikings @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 4
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Houston Texans -3.5, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Minnesota (+3.5) over HOUSTON

Lean – Under (53.5)

The Vikings will return to their facility on Thursday after the first covid-19 scare of the season. This means Minnesota will miss one day of practice, which could be worth anywhere between 0 and 1 points.

The Vikings had a 60% pass success rate in the first half last week but Kirk Cousins was completely stifled in the second half. Cousins may be in trouble again on Sunday with JJ Watt lining up across from RT Brian O’Neill (7th-worst pass-blocking efficiency).

Minnesota should find more success moving the ball on the ground as Houston’s rush defense ranks 28th in our numbers.

Deshaun Watson targets his wide receivers at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL but the Texans have faced opponents with good cornerbacks thus far in 2020 (BAL, KC, PIT). The Vikings have the worst cornerbacks in the league with head coach Mike Zimmer saying “sometimes it feels like I’m coaching kindergartners”. Last week, rookie Jeff Gladney played 12 coverage snaps on the outside and allowed all three of the targets in his direction to be caught for 97 yards.

The Vikings have a pressure rate of just 19% through 3 weeks without top edge rusher Danielle Hunter, which will be a welcome sign for a Texans team that is one of four teams in the NFL to allow a pressure rate of greater than 40% thus far.

Houston RB David Johnson gained only 1.8 yards per rush last week despite not even facing one 8-man box on his 11 carries. Minnesota’s one strength on defense this season has been stopping the run (5th) and I do not expect Johnson to get much going on the ground.

Our model makes Houston a 1.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.8 points. Both of these offenses have been playing at a faster than average pace because they have been trailing for the majority of the season. However, I expect there to be fewer plays this Sunday and the Under is a Strong Opinion. I also lean with the Vikings, who have been bad but apply to a 31-6-1 ATS contrary situation that plays on winless teams.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vikings
  • Texans
MIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 28.3 36.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 51.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.2% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 7.6% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 30.3% 19.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 53.2% 55.0%
  • NYPP 6.9 8.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.3 35.7
  • RB YPR 5.6 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 10.8% 13.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 60.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 51.3% 29.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.8 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 52.7 72.0
  • Early Down Succ 50.2% 61.2%
  • Succ Rate 47.3% 55.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 52.7% 45.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 31.0
  • Run Ratio 45.5% 49.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 22.2 37.5
  • Game Control -4.2 4.2
 
  • Points 25.0 34.0
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