Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Green Bay Team Total Over (23.5 +115)

Lean – GREEN BAY (-3/-2.5) over Minnesota

• The market has adjusted too far on Minnesota’s defense after they conceded just 7 points last week against Houston. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores befuddled CJ Stroud, as he did to Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy in the first two weeks. Stroud threw beyond the sticks on just 39% of his passes which was the 2nd-lowest rate in his career.
• Minnesota’s defense disguises coverage from single-high to two-high on a league-high 21% of snaps but the tricks will not work as well on Sunday as Green Bay’s offense is averaging 0.51 EPA/dropback versus disguised coverage (4th).
• Jordan Love is expected to be back under center for the Packers, and he is the perfect quarterback to beat the Vikings scheme on defense which requires a strong arm to access the holes in downfield against the two deep safeties as well as the patience to take the open space in the flat. Love’s 14 swing pass completions last season ranked 6th-most and his 76 screen dropbacks were 4th-most.
• Minnesota nickelback Byron Murphy is surrendering a league-high 2.67 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will struggle on the inside across from WR Jayden Reed, who is averaging 3.69 yards per route run in the slot (2nd).
• The Vikings are the third team since 1990 to have 5+ sacks in each of their first three games but they won’t approach 5 sacks on Sunday as Green Bay’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Sam Darnold’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is a league-low 63% of his yards per attempt against the blitz and the Packers defense can get home with 4 pass rushers. Green Bay’s defense has an 80% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest) under new coordinator Jeff Hafley.
• Packers’ interior defender Devonte Wyatt ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency and he will collapse pockets in this game as Minnesota’s interior offensive line is at fault for a league-high 68% of the pressures.
• Green Bay’s top CB cornerback Jaire Alexander was limited to start the practice week with an injured quad which was compounded by an injured groin and he didn’t practice on Friday. I believe Alexander is unlikely to suit up and his backup CB Carrington Valentine didn’t practice on Friday either. Meanwhile, the Vikings will have starting WR Jordan Addison in uniform for his first game this season.
• We think the fair line is 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, and the situation is strongly in favor the Packers. Minnesota applies to a 51-128-5 ATS road letdown situation while the Packers apply to an 87-23-1 ATS situation that play son good offensive teams at home against teams with a good defense.

Green Bay’s Team Total Over 23.5 is good a 1-Star Best Bet up to -120 odds.