Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (43) – GREEN BAY (pk) vs Minnesota

· The Packers sorely missed CB Jaire Alexander and LB De’Vondre Campbell last game as they surrendered 6.5 yppp to the Broncos, but both starters will likely be back on the field this week.

· Alexander will replace Green Bay backup CB Carrington Valentine, who allowed 89 yards into his coverage ranking 9th-most among week 7 cornerbacks.

· Campbell is one of the top pass-defending linebackers in the NFL and he’s allowed 2.3 fewer yards per target than backup Isaiah McDuffie.

· Vikings rookie WR Jordan Addison had a career-high 123 receiving yards last week with 83% of them coming on in-breaking routes. Campbell will limit the crossers along with Packers CB Rasul Douglas, who is conceding 0.86 yards per cover snap (15th).

· Addison averaged only 5.6 yards per target outdoors in week 6 and Minnesota’s other wide receiver KJ Osborn is 2 points worse than Justin Jefferson, who has a 58% success rate (16th) but remains out with a hamstring strain.

· Kirk Cousins will not have clean pockets to operate from, as Vikings RG Ed Ingram ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will line up across from interior defender Devonte Wyatt, whose 19 pressures rank 15th.

· Jordan Love is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and the mobility of Green Bay’s quarterback has led them to a 40.7% rush success rate (9th). However, the Packers will be contained on the ground in this game as Minnesota’s run defense ranks 4th by our metrics.

· This is a critical game for the Vikings in the playoff race after the surprise upset against the 49ers and the Falcons being the only team above .500 on the schedule until week 16. A Minnesota win in Green Bay puts their chances of making the playoffs at 63% compared to 31% with a loss.

· Our model favors the Packers by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 39.9 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion down to 42).