Game Analysis

Lean – GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Minnesota

· I’ll start by saying the Eagles can clinch the first-round bye with a win before this game kicks off so the Vikings might consider resting starters at some point.

· Minnesota will still be fighting with San Francisco for the 2-seed so if home field is more important to them than getting players some extra rest, we may see the starters for the whole game.

· The Packers have the 2nd-highest blitz rate in the NFL (34%) and Kirk Cousins ranks 41st with a first down rate versus the blitz 7 percentage points lower than when defenses do not send extra pass rushers.

· Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander ranks 7th in coverage grade by PFF and he will battle with WR Justin Jefferson, whose targets have resulted in a 60% success rate (6th).

· Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson had 109 receiving yards last week, but he will be limited in this game as the Packers are conceding only 6.5 yards per target to tight ends (7th).

· Minnesota’s interior offensive line is surrendering 9.3 pressures per game, and they will struggle to contain DT Kenny Clark, who ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Green Bay’s offense has come alive with a top receiving option for Aaron Rodgers. WR Christian Watson is averaging 2.58 yards per route run since the Packers were held to 9 points in Detroit after the rookie gained just 1.31 yards per route run the first nine weeks of the season.

· Watson left the Christmas Day game just before halftime and then was ruled out shortly afterward with a hip issue. We saw Ja’Marr Chase try to play through hip issues, and it led to him struggling in the second half of games and then missing a month. It is currently trending towards Watson not suiting up this week.

· Vikings pass rusher Danielle Hunter finished the game with two sacks on Christmas Eve and fellow edge defender Za’Darius Smith ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency. However, Hunter and Smith will likely be bottled up as the Packers tackles are conceding only 2.7 pressures per game.

· Minnesota hasn’t played outside of a dome since week 10 and now will go play in the cold on Sunday. Green Bay is 30-6 hosting dome teams after week 10 and they’ve been good against the number at home in the second half of the season (when it starts to get cold) for as long as my database goes back. The Packers are 104-68-7 ATS in all home games from game 9 on since 1980.

· Our model favors the Packers by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.4 points, and Green Bay applies to a 30-5-1 ATS situation that plays on favorites with a significantly worse straight up win percentage (that angle applied to Detroit over Minnesota a few weeks ago).