Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota

Kirk Cousins only threw 10 passes in the Vikings’ dominating week 1 win over Atlanta with offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski exceeding my expectations on his commitment to the ground game. Minnesota’s offense will eventually suffer from taking this approach and it might be as early as this week considering the Packers allowed just 46 rushing yards to the Bears in the opener and finished as the 11th-best rush defense last year. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith combined for 16 pressures and Green Bay’s new edge rushers will look to wreak havoc again versus the Vikings weak tackles. The Packers also have the secondary to matchup with Minnesota’s receivers and Cousins may be forced into check down throws. The Packers surrendered 7.1 yards per target to opposing running backs in 2018 (28th) and Dalvin Cook could do some damage as a pass-catcher. Overall, Green Bay’s defense was excellent in week 1 and we now have them ranked as the 8th best unit in the league.

The Packers’ offense was not nearly as impressive in Matt LaFleur’s debut. Aaron Rodgers will face another tough divisional rival defense and his top receiver DeVante Adams will likely be blanketed by Xavier Rhodes, who just held Julio Jones to 6 catches for 31 yards. Danielle Hunter tied for the league lead with 10 pressures last week and Everson Griffen added a sack, but Minnesota’s edge rushing duo will be slowed by one of the best tackle tandems in the league in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga. Rodgers may have to rely on young wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to make plays in the passing game with Adams likely bottled up. The Vikings rush defense ranked 2nd in 2018 and held Atlanta’s running backs to just 3.6 yards per rush so it is unlikely Aaron Jones will have a productive day on the ground.

I think the Packers are a better team and our model favors Green Bay by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.6, but I don’t feel strongly enough to make this a Best Bet.

Team Stats
Game Log

Vikings
Packers

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 22.0 43.0
Succ Pass Plays 47.0% 46.2%
Sack Rate 6.1% 6.8%
Int Rate 3.1% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.2% 18.4%
Big Pass Yards 62.8% 31.5%
NYPP 7.8 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 32.5 25.0
RB YPR 6.1 3.9
Stuff Rate 22.4% 25.3%
Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 47.9%
Big Rush Yards 60.0% 44.4%
Yards Per Rush 5.9 4.3

Game

All Snaps 54.5 68.0
Early Down Succ 44.0% 51.0%
Succ Rate 42.3% 47.8%
Big Yards Rate 61.8% 34.5%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 2.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 28.2
Run Ratio 61.3% 36.6%
Starting Field Pos 31.2 27.5
Game Control 4.8 -4.8

Points 22.0 16.5

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	28 – 12 W	18.6	63.6% / 48.0%	9.1% / 8.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	8.8 / 5.4	36.8% / 41.2%	26.3% / 29.4%	4.5 / 4.3	49 / 67	43.2% / 47.4%	42.9% / 46.3%	58.0% / 36.5%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	77.6% / 25.4%	33.7 / 26.5
2	@GB	16 – 21 L	-9.0	30.3% / 44.4%	3.0% / 5.6%	6.3% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.3	55.6% / 54.5%	18.5% / 21.2%	7.3 / 4.4	60 / 69	44.7% / 54.7%	41.7% / 49.3%	65.6% / 32.5%	7.0 / 4.9	3.3% / 2.9%	45.0% / 47.8%	28.7 / 28.5

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	10 – 3 W	2.9	40.0% / 34.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	4.7 / 4.2	22.7% / 40.0%	36.4% / 26.7%	2.1 / 3.1	57 / 65	39.5% / 41.7%	33.3% / 35.4%	53.1% / 38.2%	3.7 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	38.6% / 23.1%	30.9 / 22.7
2	MIN	21 – 16 W	9.0	44.4% / 30.3%	5.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	5.3 / 6.8	54.5% / 55.6%	21.2% / 18.5%	4.4 / 7.3	69 / 60	54.7% / 44.7%	49.3% / 41.7%	32.5% / 65.6%	4.9 / 7.0	2.9% / 3.3%	47.8% / 45.0%	28.5 / 28.7

Minnesota Vikings @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Sep 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis