Game Analysis
*GREEN BAY (+9) over Minnesota
Lean – Under (40.5)
Green Bay’s front office wisely benched Aaron Rodgers to mitigate the risk of re-injury, which means we will see Brett Hundley back under center. Minnesota certainly won’t be an easy matchup for Hundley as the Vikings surrender just 5.4 yards per pass play, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Packers found success in the ground game without Rodgers, and their rushing offense ranks 3rd in my metrics, but the Vikings have the 7th-rated rush defense. Basically, there is no easy way to attack the Vikings
Still, Green Bay is certainly not a horrible team when Hundley is at quarterback and the Packers covered the spread in each of his previous 3 starts, including a 28-31 loss as a 14 point dog at Pittsburgh. The market has over-adjusted for Hundley being back at quarterback and for Minnesota’s desire to secure the #1 seed in the East. But, that doesn’t mean that Minnesota will play any better than they’ve been playing, as the Vikings have certainly been playing with desire all season. The question is if the Packers will prepare for this game with the same detail and enthusiasm as they prepared for games before being eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss. Historically, there is no significant difference in the performance level of teams out of playoff contention and the chances of the Packers mailing it in are diminished by this game being in Lambeau and against their most hated rival. The line on this game is too high, as our predictive model makes this game Minnesota by just 4 points after adjusting for Hundley and a more conservative estimate would be Vikings by 6 ½ points.
In addition to the line value Green Bay applies to a 132-66-6 ATS late-season situation that plays on home teams after playing on the road the previous two weeks. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 19-63-2 ATS situation and week 16 is the week to take the points in the NFL. In the last 20 seasons, underdogs of 2 points or more are 167-112-7 ATS (60%) in week 16 and most of those are teams that are out of playoff contention (losing teams are also 60% ATS and make up most of that trend). The public just assumes that teams not going to the playoff have nothing to play and the spreads on teams with something to play for are inflated. That’s particularly the case this season when favorites have been winning at such an historic rate over the 2nd half of the season. The public simply has no fear with betting on obvious teams and the odds makers are certainly making them play a premium to keep betting on such teams. In the long run the odds makers are smarter than the public and this is the week the public usually get their asses kicked back to reality.
The Packers actually apply to an 80-25-1 ATS subset of that week 16 underdog situation that was 5-0 last year, 5-0 in 2015 and 5-1 in 2014. Last year, all 5 underdogs actually won their games straight up. I’m still a bit concerned that the decision to sit Rodgers is sending the wrong signal to the rest of the team, so I won’t go big on this game, but I suspect the Packers will be playing hard in front of their loyal home fans against their most hated rival on national TV. I’ll take Green Bay in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +10 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.4
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.6%
39.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.3%
33.1%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.4
24.1
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.0%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.3%
39.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.4%
20.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
67.7
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
44.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.4%
40.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
31.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
27.4
-
Run Ratio
47.6%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.1
27.9
-
Game Control
3.9
-3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.2
35.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.5%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.4%
18.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
38.4%
-
NYPP
5.3
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
30.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.7%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
47.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.2%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
29.4
-
Run Ratio
39.6%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
29.1
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% /
47.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.5 |
36.1% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
38.9% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
74 /
56 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
44.6% |
50.2% /
18.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
32.1% |
22.2 /
24.6 |
| 12 |
@DET |
30 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.4% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.2 |
35.6% /
46.7% |
31.1% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
77 /
53 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
37.7% |
50.4% /
47.4% |
5.3 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
58.4% /
28.3% |
32.1 /
29.2 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
14 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.5% /
34.5% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
44.1% /
45.5% |
17.6% /
22.7% |
3.2 /
4.6 |
66 /
51 |
59.2% /
46.2% |
53.0% /
39.2% |
16.5% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
43.1% |
25.9 /
22.4 |
| 14 |
@CAR |
24 – 31 L |
-5.9 |
44.0% /
29.6% |
12.0% /
7.4% |
4.5% /
4.0% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
52.4% /
41.5% |
23.8% /
19.5% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
71 /
68 |
47.3% /
43.5% |
46.5% /
36.8% |
36.2% /
47.4% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
60.3% |
31.7 /
33.2 |
| 15 |
CIN |
34 – 7 W |
21.4 |
33.3% /
25.8% |
7.4% /
9.7% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
8.2 /
3.7 |
43.2% /
20.0% |
24.3% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
64 /
51 |
44.7% /
28.6% |
39.1% /
23.5% |
61.9% /
28.0% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
39.2% |
33.2 /
24.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
17 – 9 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
40.0% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
35.5% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
50.0% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
77 /
48 |
44.6% /
44.4% |
44.2% /
39.6% |
37.8% /
58.7% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
40.3% /
37.5% |
25.9 /
27.5 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
23 – 34 L |
-12.4 |
50.9% /
51.6% |
5.7% /
9.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
56.3% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
52.2% /
53.4% |
24.2% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
46.6% |
22.1 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
CIN |
27 – 24 W |
-6.6 |
43.8% /
53.3% |
12.5% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
32.3% |
29.4% /
29.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
44.0% /
46.8% |
44.6% /
42.6% |
58.1% /
31.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.2% /
50.8% |
25.8 /
26.5 |
| 4 |
CHI |
35 – 14 W |
16.9 |
41.4% /
38.2% |
6.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
5.8 /
6.0 |
48.0% /
40.0% |
4.0% /
26.7% |
3.7 /
3.4 |
54 /
64 |
43.2% /
36.0% |
44.4% /
39.1% |
50.6% /
25.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
46.3% /
46.9% |
33.5 /
28.5 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
35 – 31 W |
-4.2 |
51.5% /
59.5% |
12.1% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
6.6 |
64.0% /
60.0% |
12.0% /
14.3% |
6.4 /
4.7 |
58 /
72 |
58.0% /
57.9% |
56.9% /
59.7% |
43.3% /
28.7% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
2.8% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
22.3 /
25.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
10 – 23 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% /
44.7% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
2.6% |
3.8 /
6.3 |
20.8% /
35.3% |
29.2% /
41.2% |
3.0 /
3.3 |
65 /
72 |
33.3% /
43.9% |
32.3% /
40.3% |
11.5% /
46.0% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.9% /
47.2% |
30.1 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
NO |
17 – 26 L |
2.5 |
23.1% /
59.0% |
3.8% /
2.6% |
4.0% /
5.3% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
70.8% /
53.8% |
16.7% /
12.8% |
7.5 /
4.2 |
50 /
78 |
48.7% /
61.4% |
46.0% /
56.4% |
45.4% /
49.2% |
5.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.0% /
50.0% |
18.2 /
30.1 |
| 9 |
DET |
17 – 30 L |
-9.8 |
43.9% /
64.7% |
7.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
10.4 |
70.6% /
24.2% |
11.8% /
45.5% |
4.6 /
1.9 |
58 /
67 |
59.6% /
40.7% |
51.7% /
44.8% |
25.4% /
43.2% |
5.4 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.3% /
49.3% |
25.8 /
32.5 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
23 – 16 W |
5.0 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
10.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.7 |
52.6% /
29.4% |
15.8% /
35.3% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
66 /
57 |
55.3% /
35.7% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
39.1% /
51.1% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
57.6% /
29.8% |
30.8 /
26.5 |
| 11 |
BAL |
0 – 23 L |
-7.6 |
38.1% /
32.3% |
14.3% /
9.7% |
8.3% /
3.6% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
44.0% /
44.4% |
32.0% /
25.9% |
3.0 /
2.2 |
67 /
58 |
44.0% /
43.9% |
40.3% /
37.9% |
26.4% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
46.6% |
20.1 /
46.6 |
| 12 |
@PIT |
28 – 31 L |
1.4 |
40.0% /
65.2% |
13.3% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
7.6 /
7.4 |
54.2% /
45.8% |
20.8% /
8.3% |
3.3 /
5.0 |
54 /
70 |
45.0% /
57.1% |
46.3% /
58.6% |
60.3% /
38.1% |
5.7 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.4% /
34.3% |
26.9 /
31.7 |
| 13 |
TB |
26 – 20 W |
1.6 |
33.3% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
17.9% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.9 |
60.0% /
48.6% |
13.3% /
17.1% |
6.7 /
4.7 |
54 /
74 |
52.5% /
43.1% |
48.1% /
45.9% |
40.1% /
34.7% |
5.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
55.6% /
47.3% |
28.5 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@CLE |
27 – 21 W |
-4.5 |
57.4% /
43.3% |
2.1% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.4 /
7.0 |
39.3% /
39.3% |
32.1% /
14.3% |
3.1 /
4.9 |
75 /
58 |
51.9% /
39.5% |
50.7% /
41.4% |
28.7% /
32.7% |
4.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
48.3% |
28.5 /
22.4 |
| 15 |
@CAR |
24 – 31 L |
-5.5 |
46.8% /
56.3% |
6.4% /
3.1% |
6.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
63.2% /
45.2% |
10.5% /
14.3% |
6.3 /
3.7 |
66 /
74 |
53.8% /
55.4% |
51.5% /
50.0% |
44.5% /
38.7% |
5.8 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
56.8% |
28.8 /
27.7 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
Green Bay Packers