Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Under (42) – Denver vs Minnesota

Lean – DENVER (-2.5)

· The Vikings offense is averaging 0.03 EPA/play the last two weeks (12th) as Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota has taken defenses by surprise, but we have plenty of sample size to know Dobbs isn’t suddenly one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

· Dobbs’ -0.04 EPA/play ranks 6th-worst among quarterbacks with 300 plays this season.

· Denver’s defense ranked last in DVOA the first five games after switching schemes from the previous years under DCs Vic Fangio and Ejiro Evero to Vance Joseph’s scheme but the Broncos defense ranks 9th in DVOA since week 6.

· Vikings RG Ed Ingram ranks 45th in pass blocking efficiency out of 49 qualifying guards and he will struggle across from interior defender Zach Allen, whose 29 pressures rank 10th.

· Denver’s defense has starting safety Kareem Jackson back from suspension for this game to limit tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 1.94 yards per route run (4th).

· Minnesota All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.87 yards per route run (5th) but he will be out one more game leaving Dobbs with only one threatening wide receiver.

· Vikings WR Jordan Addison is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (8th) but he will be shut down by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain, who has forced a tight window on 28% of his targets since the start of 2022 (9th).

· Russell Wilson is not capable of executing the Sean Payton offense as 77% of Wilson’s yards last Monday night came out of structure on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds.

· Payton has given up on Wilson recently as Denver’s offense has a league-high 54% run play rate in the last three games. The Broncos ground game will be contained on Sunday night by a Vikings rush defense allowing -0.15 EPA/rush (7th).

· Wilson is also not pushing the ball downfield, averaging only 5.6 air yards per attempt in the last four games.

· I do not expect Payton to start trusting Wilson in this matchup as he is averaging a league-low -0.31 EPA/play against the blitz and Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL with a 56.0% blitz rate.

· Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter has 40 pressures (18th) and he will wreak havoc against Denver RT Mike McGlinchey, who ranks 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 5.6 with a predicted total of 39.1 points. Denver is not a play because the matchups favor the Vikings (although I lean with Denver) but the matchups also favor the Under.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 41.5 or more (Strong Opinion at 41).