Game Analysis

Lean – Over (36) – Minnesota (-3.5) vs Cleveland

• This game clearly has the highest variance of any this season.
• First, it will be played in London where the Vikings will have a body clock advantage because they stayed all week after their game in Ireland.
• This has happened twice before with the Jaguars playing on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back Europe game. Jacksonville beat New England 32-16 last year and Buffalo 25-20 in 2023 with an average cover margin of 10.0.
• You could convince me this unusual body clock jet lag advantage is worth anything from a half point to those 10 points. The Vikings definitely think it’s worth something because they voluntarily signed up for back-to-back Europe games.
• However, non-divisional underdogs (Browns) of 3 to 10 that scored 17 or fewer in 4 or more consecutive games and are averaging 17.0 ppg or less for the season are 112-44-4 ATS. So, the Browns may be underrated based on how bad their offense has been.
• Furthermore, Cleveland is making a change at quarterback after Joe Flacco threw two interceptions last week. Flacco was averaging a league-low -0.29 EPA/play and it’s hard to imagine Dillon Gabriel will be worse. Gabriel is very similar to Bo Nix last season, as he has a lot of college starts under his belt. Gabriel was also good in 3 different systems, at UCF, Oklahoma and Oregon, where he succeeded Nix.
• However, this is not a favorable matchup for Gabriel to be making his first NFL start. Minnesota’s defense has a league-high 53% blitz rate and a 44% pressure rate (3rd). Brian Flores is allowing only 16.3 points per game against rookie quarterbacks the last 7 seasons since he took over as Dolphins head coach.
• Aaron Rodgers countered Flores with 76% of his throws out in less than 2.5 seconds last week but it remains to be seen whether Gabriel will feel as comfortable spraying the ball around quickly.
• Cleveland traded for LT Cam Robinson on Monday to stabilize the position after the season-ending knee injury to Dawand Jones and it sounds like this is finally the week for starting RT Jack Conklin to return to the lineup. Browns backup Cornelius Lucas ranked last out of 59 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and other backup KT Leveston had surrendered 4 QB hits (3rd-most).
• Cleveland’s tight ends have a 30.9% target share (2nd-highest) but they will be limited as Minnesota’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.67 EPA/target to opposing TEs.
• Browns WR Cedric Tillman has a team-high 45% success rate, but he will miss this game and backup WR Isaiah Bond only has a 38% success rate.
• The Vikings are dealing with injuries of their own as they will be without 3 starters on the offensive line against Cleveland’s defense with a 9.6% sack rate (4th).
• Minnesota C Ryan Kelly (concussion) had not allowed a pressure in 62 pass blocking snaps while backup Michael Jurgens has allowed 3 sacks in 81 pass blocking snaps. RT Brian O’Neill ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency last season. They will also be without starting LG Donovan Jackson. Those three are worth 2.5 points as a cluster loss according to our metrics.
• The good news for Carson Wentz is Vikings’ LT Christian Darrisaw has conceded only 1 pressure on 42 true pass sets and he will battle across from Myles Garrett, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.
• Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson has a 61% success rate (13th) but he could be limited by CB Denzel Ward, whose 58% lockdown percentage ranks 8th. It is important the Vikings got a second WR threat with Jordan Addison coming off suspension and gaining 114 yards last week.
• Our model makes Minnesota a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.8 points. I used the Browns in my spread pool.