Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (+3.5) over Minnesota

• Caleb Williams averaged 6.2 yppp in his first game with new play caller Thomas Brown after averaging 3.1 yppp in the three previous games. Williams avoided the mistakes with only 7% of his dropbacks ending in -1 EPA or worse against the Packers.
• Bears LT Braxton Jones and RT Darnell Wright returned to action following injuries and Chicago’s offensive line conceded just 8 pressures versus Green Bay.
• The Bears’ offensive line will likely get more reinforcements this week in LG Teven Jenkins, who is conceding only 1.2 pressures per game.
• Williams is taking a sack on 32.3% of his pressured dropbacks (2nd-worst) and he will have to show improvement like he did last week, as he’s facing a Minnesota defense with a 38% pressure rate (7th) and a league-high 51% blitz rate.
• Chicago wide receiver DJ Moore had 7 receptions in his first week with the new play caller but he will be contained in this game by CB Shaquill Griffin, who is allowing only 0.62 yards per cover snap (3rd).
• Williams will instead feature WR Rome Odunze, who had a season-high 32% target share last week. Williams is averaging a league-high 12% more yppp versus two-high shells than single-high coverages and he has a favorable matchup finding Odunze and WR Keenan Allen against a Vikings’ defense leading the NFL with a 77% two-high safety rate.
• The Bears dropped to a 50% pass-play rate in the first game with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator after Brown had the 32nd pass-play rate versus expectation last season with the Panthers. However, the Bears ground game will be shut down this week as the Vikings are allowing a league-low 30% rush success rate.
• Sam Darnold is averaging a league-high 35% more yppp versus single-high than two-high safety coverages and he has a favorable matchup as Chicago’s defense has a 53% single-high safety rate (5th-highest).
• Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson leads the NFL averaging 2.75 yards per route run and he will be featured when lined up across from CB Tyrique Stevenson, who is surrendering a league-high 1.69 yards per cover snap.
• Vikings’ RT Brian O’Neill has conceded 9 pressures (5th-fewest) and he will contain edge defender Montez Sweat, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Bears’ interior defender Gervon Dexter has 28 pressures (14th) and he will wreak havoc across from RG Ed Ingram, who ranks 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Our model makes Minnesota a 3.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 41.9, and the lean on the Bears is based on a 50-107-2 ATS situation that applies to teams playing their 3^rd consecutive road game.