Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (45/44.5) – Minnesota at CHICAGO

Lean – Minnesota (-2.5)

· This game will have the worst scoring conditions of the week by our numbers with a wet ball and high wind speeds.

· The weather will make it nearly impossible for Justin Fields to go downfield for wide receiver DJ Moore, who gained 221 yards on hitches and go routes last week.

· Bears RT Darnell Wright ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle to contain edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who has 6.0 sacks (2nd). Vikings opposite edge rusher Marcus Davenport was out to start the season but he has seven pressures and two sacks over the past two games.

· Chicago center Lucas Patrick left last Thursday’s game and is currently in the concussion protocol leaving backup C Cody Whitehair to set the protections with Fields against a Vikings defense leading the league with a 60.2% blitz rate.

· Minnesota’s defense is conceding a 45% success rate to tight ends (9th) and they will limit TE Colt Kmet, who is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (5th).

· The Bears’ offense is 7th in run rate adjusted for situation but Minnesota’s defense ranks 10th in EPA/rush as interior defender Jonathan Bullard leads the NFL with a 17.9% run stop rate.

· Chicago’s secondary will be getting reinforcements back on the field this week with the likely return of three starters in safety Eddie Jackson, cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and nickelback Kyler Gordon. Backup nickleback Greg Stroman surrendered 1.62 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst) so the Bears’ pass defense should improve with the starters back.

· Kirk Cousins will not have All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson, who was gaining 2.40 adjusted yards per route run (7th) before straining his right hamstring last week. Jefferson is gaining 3.1 yards per target more than Minnesota’s other wide receivers and he is worth 2 points to the offense.

· TJ Hockenson is averaging 0.02 EPA/target ranking 5th-worst among qualifying tight ends and he will get more workload without Jefferson in uniform.

· Our model favors the Vikings by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 38.7, but the matchups significantly favor Minnesota.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 44 points or more.